GREEN POLITICS:In 2007, emissions was the primary focus. Now that's changed. It's all about the smart economy and the promise of 127,000 green collar jobs
WHEN CHINESE'S premier Zhou Enlai was asked in the 1960s for his opinion on the French Revolution, he famously replied: "It's too early to tell".
On a less grand scale, it's too early to fully assess the impact of the Green Party since entering coalition with Fianna Fáil in 2007. Sure, the apprenticeship is well and truly over, but only at the end of its first term in government can an assessment be made of the success or failure of the experiment.
In June 2007, the political context left few trump cards in the hands of the Greens. Fianna Fáil already had attained the magical number of 83. It did not need them, but including them would copperfasten Bertie Ahern's majority and guarantee a full term. As time has proved, it was a prescient bit of political manoeuvring.
The Programme for Government back then very much reflected which party had the whip hand. Indeed, the programme read like the Fianna Fáil manifesto, which it was, with one or two bones thrown to the smaller parties.
There were a smallish number of Green priorities included. The big "win" for the Greens was a commitment to reduce emissions by 3 per cent on average every year. With an economy still in an expansion phase, that was significant. Carbon emissions in Ireland had rocketed during the boom years. Kyoto had allowed Ireland increase its emissions by 13 per cent between 1990 and 2012. But at their peak they had shot up 25 per cent above 1990 levels, to almost 70 million tonnes of carbon dioxide each year. That five-year project to reduce emissions by a total of 15 per cent seemed hugely ambitious.
The other big Green items in 2007 included a commitment to introduce civil partnership legislation; new building standards; a carbon budget; a nod towards a carbon tax and an ambitious programme for renewable energy.
The party also made a huge play that the two Green ministries, environment and energy, were the key ones from its perspective.
But from the get-go, there were causes that were already lost. The party had to cede to Fianna Fáil on the motorway building programme including the M3; on the north Mayo gas terminal; on the Shannon stopover for US troops; and on hospital co-location. Although John Gormley, as the new Minister for the Environment, fought a high-profile rearguard battle against incinerators, including Poolbeg in his own constituency, it had little effect on a process that was underway. The train had left the station, they explained. Or the other excuse was the party had six TDs compared to Fianna Fáil's 79.
Paradoxically, the parties record on a strict tick-the-box basis isn't bad. In 30 months they delivered a civil partnership Bill; energy efficiency; a carbon budget; a carbon tax; changes in VRT and motor tax; a big retrofit programme; new teachers; and commitments to smart metering. And emissions, while not falling, have flatlined.
The big problem is that all these admirable gains have coincided with a recession of Grand Canyon depth. Energy efficiency standards are not much good when no houses are being built. The new motor taxes are next to useless when car sales have tanked. And besides, politically, making a big play about emissions seems almost perverse when thrown against the realities of recession and austerity and growing unemployment.
The second problem is that politics is the art not so much of the possible but of the "not possible". There were big compromises the party had to make that went against the grain and there have been two very different reactions to that. The first is that the party's popular support has deserted it. Its slump in the local elections where it lost 13 of its previous 16 council seats was a shocker. The party was being punished for jumping into bed with Fianna Fáil. In addition, what's good for the goose is not always good for the gander. The carbon tax will go down well with the Greens, but with virtually nobody else who pulls their car up to forecourts or buys a bale of briquettes during the winter months.
The second reaction has been that of the party's own membership. It has stayed incredibly loyal even when swallowing some very unpalatable medicine. There was unhappiness and grumbling from members, for sure. That said, the internal dissent never transformed into open revolt. The membership of the party is not as fundamental or ideological as it was a decade ago. And the most prominent refuseniks - Patricia McKenna, Chris O'Leary and Bronwen Maher - all left the party rather than foment dissent from within.
And the membership has backed the leadership with the required two-thirds majority on Lisbon Two, on Nama, and on the new programme for Government. In effect, it has endorsed and committed the party to a full term in Government.
In 2007, emissions was the primary focus of success or failure. Now that's changed. It's all about the smart economy and the promise of 127,000 green collar jobs in the new programme from projects as diverse as wind energy, smart metering, a "green" IFSC and cloud computing.
One unmistakable trope of this Government is that the trust levels between both parties are very high. Fianna Fail has bought into this as the main jobs strategy and the low-carbon economy as the Greens have bought into Nama and the €4 billion in cuts and other policies it railed against in the past. Both have committed on the premise that there are no other alternatives. They both know if there's an election now, it will mean annihilation. Their only hope is to last the course, and limit the electoral damage both will invariably suffer in 2011 or 2012.
