UK manufacturers staged a modest rebound from the initial shock of the Brexit vote as a weaker pound boosted overseas demand for cars.
Output rose 0.2 per cent in August, less than the 0.4 per cent predicted in a Bloomberg survey, Office for National Statistics data published Friday show.
It followed a 0.9 per cent drop in July in the aftermath of the shock decision to leave the European Union. Total industrial production fell 0.4 per cent, depressed by lower oil and gas extraction.
It means industrial output will shrink in the third quarter unless September sees growth of at least 1.2 per cent, leaving it to the dominant services industry to keep the economy growing.
Separate figures suggest there will no help from exporters. The trade deficit widened in August as shipments to other countries virtually stagnated and imports surged.
While the evidence to date points to some growth in the third quarter, a slowdown is under way and forecast to gather pace next year. Business investment is expected to be hard hit as Britain faces an uncertain future outside the EU, the destination for more than 40 per cent of UK exports.
Formal withdrawal negotiations are due to begin by April and fears of a so-called hard Brexit sent the pound to its lowest level against the dollar in 31 years this week.
Pound Effect
Only four of 13 manufacturing sectors saw output rise in August, with transport equipment providing the biggest upward contribution. There was “limited evidence” that the sharp fall in the pound boosted demand for cars during the month, ONS statistician Kate Davies said. Output of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers jumped 4.1 per cent.
Total industrial production was hit by shutdowns of some oil and gas fields, which saw extraction fall 4.4 per cent.
Sterling’s plunge since the Brexit referendum failed to provide a widespread boost to exports, which rose just 0.2 per cent in August. Imports, by contrast, jumped 7.5 per cent, led by foreign shipments of electrical machinery, cars and aircraft. As a result, the trade deficit widened to £12.1 billion ($15 billion).
In the latest three months, the shortfall in goods and services widened to 12.6 billion pounds from 9 billion pounds, suggesting trade may again act as a drag on growth in the third quarter. The deficit in August alone grew to £4.7 billion.
‘Way to Go’
“While some sectors continue to perform well, there is still some way to go to ensure that we are exporting as much as we could and should do, so the government will continue to encourage and support the wider range of exporting we require to boost our national prosperity,” International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said in statement.
Business has expressed growing alarm over the prospect of a hard Brexit amid signs that Prime Minister Theresa May sees controlling immigration from the EU as more important than retaining full access to the single market. Brexit backers say the EU won't to put up trade barriers because it sells far more to the UK than vice versa. The gap widened to a record £8.4 billion in August.
(Bloomberg)
