THE DRAFT Nama Bill puts skin on the bones of the Government’s plan to spread the risk on the purchase of toxic loans between the State and the banks.
But the Government revealed nothing about the make-or-break detail that will determine whether Nama is likely to be a success.
Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has stuck to his plan not to reveal until next Wednesday the price to the paid for soured bank loans with a face value of €90 billion.
Mr Lenihan will reveal the total cost of the Nama scheme at that time, when the Oireachtas returns to debate the Bill. He will outline how much the Government will raise in bonds to pay for the loans – Nama’s aggregate cost.
It is still no clearer how much of a discount – the so-called “haircut” – below the €90 billion figure the Government will pay for the loans.
Some estimates have put the purchase price at €50-€60 billion, but the only indication the Government has given so far is that the losses incurred by the banks will not wipe out existing shareholders at Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks (AIB).
Mr Lenihan said yesterday in a statement that each individual loan will require a separate valuation and the figure he provides next week will be “an estimate”.
“Only after the valuation of each loan will an exact price be determined,” the Minister said. Officials have said it could be June 2010 before this is known.
Mr Lenihan will provide information on the value of the loans to be acquired from the lenders but not the individual price to be paid to each.
However, he has said that market analysts will be able to decipher from the total cost how much each will receive and whether they will need further State capital and cede shares, possibly majority stakes, to the Government.
The Nama Bill outlined the Government’s plan to split the risk between the taxpayers and bank shareholders by staggering payment over time, depending on whether the property market recovers and Nama makes a profit on the toxic loans. This will be done by issuing two types of bonds – State bonds and subordinated debt, which carries higher interest payments. Government sources said the Minister would say next Wednesday how much the State intends to pay the banks in each category of bond.
The Bill also fails to outline the formula by which it will determine the market value and the tricky long-term economic value of the assets it acquires.
Again, the Minister will wait until Wednesday to outline how this formula will work.
It is not clear how the Government will ensure that Nama injects credit into the economy.
Much has been revealed, but many key details remain unknown.