Let the Budget season begin. Already speculation is rife about the shape of the package to be presented by the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, on Wednesday week, December 3rd.
The next nine days will see the usual pre-Budget frenzy - but all the indications are that the day itself may be a fairly straightforward affair.
In terms of tone, the Budget will be in line with last year's tight affair, rather than the give-away packages of the previous government.
Mr McCreevy may have a somewhat more comfortable position than he did when framing the 2003 budget but, after going some way to index the income tax system for inflation and pushing up social welfare, he is not likely to have much cash left to do anything else.
There has been a welcome lift in tax returns in recent months and tax accountants believe that the key self-employed returns, the final instalment of which are now being paid, will also be strong. This lift in tax returns improves the outlook for 2004 and should leave room for two Budget-day manoeuvres.
The first will be a fairly generous social welfare package. Criticism over cuts in the Book of Estimates will encourage the Government to be relatively generous on Budget day, with payments in general rising in line with or slightly ahead of inflation.
It remains to be seen what its priority areas will be, although a further sizeable increase in the old-age pension is likely. This year, the old-age contributory pension rose from €144 to €157.30 and the Government will want to make further progress towards its €200 a week target.
Also, last year Mr McCreevy signalled further above-average increases in child benefit this year.
On the tax side, his 2003 budget failed to adjust the standard rate band and tax credits fully for inflation, leading to an upwards creep in the income tax take. His main concession was an increase in the employee tax credit (formerly known as the PAYE tax allowance), increasing the entry point to the tax system for a single person from €209 per week to €223 per week - or 90 per cent of the minimum wage. With the minimum hourly wage due to rise by 10 per cent to €7 per hour next February, a somewhat large rise in this credit may take place for 2004.
The Minister should also be able to go at least some of the way towards indexing other credits and the standard rate band for inflation.
On the other side of the equation, some money will be raised from higher excise duties, although Mr McCreevy is not expected to go as far as he did last December, when duty hikes added close to 1 percentage point to the inflation rate.
And surprises? Don't expect too many but, knowing Mr McCreevy, there will be some.
He is clearly under pressure to relent on plans to abolish the Section 481 film tax relief and sources believe he may allow the scheme to continue.
No move is expected on taxing stallion nomination fees - last year the Minister announced he would study income from this sector, but he will not receive 2003 returns until late next year. The horses will escape again in a Budget that looks likely to be more of a five-furlong sprint than a marathon Grand National.
