Intel's cautious decision to slow construction of its new chip fabrication plant in Leixlip should concentrate minds here which have grown accustomed to a roaring economy fuelled by a burgeoning technology sector. At the same time, the announcement should not be cause for further hand-wringing by the brigade that seems to think tumbleweeds will soon be blowing through Leixlip and other areas of tech company concentration.
Intel's decision, though painful to employees and the Government, makes business sense in the current economic climate, and Intel had been warning since late last year that all was not well.
In a lengthy press release Wednesday, it claimed it was ahead of schedule for the 2003 build-out of its new Fab 24 plant, had decided to halt construction in 2001, accelerate it again in 2002 and promised full employment in 2003.
Can this be believed? Is the company ahead of schedule? Well, it is worth pointing out that Intel co-founder and former chief executive Mr Andy Grove, and chief executive Mr Craig Barrett, have both indicated before that the Republic had its fab plants up and running before schedule and faster than any other fab Intel has built. Indeed, that speed was cited by Barrett as a prime reason the Republic won the contract for Fab 24.
Last June, the company said it intended to roll out the new fab in 15 months, the fastest completion yet; a chip shortage existed and analysts predicted it could not be met even by full steam production worldwide.
We all know the economic climate has clearly changed, and chip demand has diminished.
Anyone familiar with Intel and its history will know it operates conservatively. But it also has built its success on moving as fast as possible to get chips out as needed and remain on the creative edge of new chip technology.
A chip company, especially the world's leading chip company, cannot afford to stop and wait around for long. Demand for chips will inevitably return in the digital world we now live in.
Thus, it makes sense to shelve Fab 24 for the short term. Will the project be completed? All signs are that this is indeed a delay and not a cancellation, but only Intel knows what it will do. On the other hand, here is Mr Barrett quoted in New York Times writer Thomas L. Fried man's recent best-seller, The Olive and the Lexus Tree: Understanding Globalization: "We are the biggest investor in Ireland and, I believe, the biggest employer. We are there because Ireland is very pro-business, they have a very strong educational infrastructure, it is incredibly easy to move things in and out of the country and incredibly easy to work with the government. I would invest in Ireland before I would invest in Germany or France."
But a cooler economic wind is blowing through the Republic, signalled by Intel's delay and the loss of jobs as well as the closure of several technology companies in past months. Nonetheless, this does not mean a return to the chilly 1980s.
The Republic's technology sector is diverse and energetic and is not focused on a few huge companies and a handful of sectors. Contrary to public perception, about half of all technology industry employees work for indigenous firms and thus are not directly exposed to American multinationals.
But what the current situation does underline in bold strokes is the urgent need to quantify the sector that arguably now drives the national economy.
Amazingly, the Government maintains few statistics and does not know decisively how many people are employed in technology, where they work, how many work in what sectors, or which companies act as suppliers and how many work for them. Ask for such basic and obvious statistics and the agencies that should know offer guesses.
At a time of economic change, this is a deeply worrying situation. We have no way of understanding the true impact of the announcement made by one of the companies most central to our economy. Without a proper picture of this essential industry, we cannot comprehend or properly address delays, job losses or company failures.
Nothing could be more dangerous at a time when the economic landscape is shifting constantly.
klillington@irish-times.ie