Nothing definite for europhiles other than a date for a decision

From an Irish viewpoint, it was a case of the budgetary dog that didn't bark

From an Irish viewpoint, it was a case of the budgetary dog that didn't bark. However, at least we now know for sure when the hound is going to perform.

By far the most important British economic policy matter for Ireland is whether the Blair government will hold a referendum on euro membership - and if so, when. Chancellor Gordon Brown did not clarify this issue but he did confirm that the Treasury would pronounce on it in early June.

The decision on whether a referendum will go ahead will be based (a bit like membership of the Jedi nights) on a series of "tests". The five tests include whether joining would be good for jobs, foreign investment and the City; whether the British economy is closely enough aligned to the other euro-zone states; and whether it is flexible enough.

Yesterday, Mr Brown made a point of highlighting the poor performance of the main euro-zone economies, which some saw as a signal that the Treasury's verdict in June would be "no", or at least "not yet". There has long been speculation that Mr Brown is sceptical, while Mr Tony Blair is keener on membership; it was characterised by Liberal Democrat leader Mr Charles Kennedy yesterday as the "will he, won't he; push me, pull you" split.

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At this stage, most analysts believe the June statement will say that Britain does not meet the criteria, but that it should be kept under active review, meaning that the tests could conceivably be conducted again within a year or so.

Elsewhere, the main feature of the budget was a downgrading of GDP growth forecasts to 2-2.5 per cent this year which, as Mr Brown says, is a lot closer to the US than to the anaemic 1 per cent likely in the euro zone. However, Mr Brown expects growth to pick up to 3-3.5 per cent next year, a prediction many analysts believe is optimistic.

Like finance ministers across Europe, Mr Brown is hoping that a recovery in growth will bring down borrowing. From the point of view of Irish exporters, we must hope he is correct. With the main euro-zone markets in a poor state, a bounce in Britain - our biggest export market - would be welcome for Irish exporters.