When all hell was breaking loose last March, did anyone think the S&P 500 was about to soar 50 per cent and be back at all-time highs by August?
That bear market was the fastest ever, notes LPL Research's Ryan Detrick, at just over one month. The subsequent bull market has been similarly historic.
Detrick notes it normally takes 30 months for stocks to recover their losses following bear markets caused by recessions; this time, it took five months.
It took 100 trading days for stocks to gain 50 per cent, notes Bespoke Investment – the biggest 100-day gain in 87 years. The Nasdaq 100 did even better, soaring 60 per cent over the same period. That’s the third-strongest run on record, behind only the record-breaking runs that ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
Of course, 1999-2000 turned out to be a lousy time to buy for long-term investors, but history suggests momentum will carry stocks higher in the coming months. Further gains will seem unthinkable to sceptics, but “there has been nothing normal about this recession”, says Detrick, “so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020”.
