Pick up CRH while it's down

Across Europe and the US the year 2000 has been notable for a marked increase in stock market volatility

Across Europe and the US the year 2000 has been notable for a marked increase in stock market volatility. The emergence of technology and telecoms as a large growth sector in most exchanges has been a key factor in this increase in share price volatility.

However, increased volatility has not been confined solely to the technology and telecom stocks. Many "old economy" sectors have also experienced much higher volatility compared with historical norms.

For example, the US bank sector rose strongly during the summer months only to see most of those gains dissipate during the autumn. Worries that a slowdown in US economic growth could lead to rising bad debts seems to be the main cause of recent weakness. European banks have at least partially mirrored the US experience, albeit to varying degrees across national markets. In the UK, corporate activity has been the main influence on share price volatility within the banking sector. Merger discussions between Bank of Scotland and Abbey National are the most recent corporate event to stimulate buying interest in UK bank stocks.

After a long period of underperformance, Irish banks joined in the global bull market in financial shares over the summer months.

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So far, Irish banking shares have held on to those gains and strong financial results seem capable of insulating them against adverse international trends. Another old economy sector that has witnessed a high degree of volatility this year is building materials. Again the more extreme share price movements have been seen in the US due to a slew of profit warnings from the major players. The US sector has declined by close to 40 per cent so far this year, whereas in Europe the decline has been a more muted 16 per cent.

Against this background, it is not surprising that the CRH share price has suffered and is now down more than 25 per cent from its opening price in January 2000. While many of its peers have suffered from profit downgrades, CRH has maintained its enviable record of profit growth.

Analysts are forecasting a rise of 16 per cent in its earnings per share over the next 12 months. This is much higher than its international peers, with only Blue Circle Industries expected to grow significantly faster. CRH, however, has been much more consistent in increasing its profits over the long term than comparable international companies.

This reflects the success of CRH's long-running strategy of diversifying geographically, and in the process it has become one of the larger international players in the building materials industry. CRH's market capitalisation is now double that of Blue Circle Industries and in Europe only Lafarge and Holder bank are larger.

Ironically, despite its better underlying financial performance, CRH's share price has suffered even more than many of its peers this year.

This has left the shares looking relatively cheap, given that they are now trading on a price-earnings ratio of just under 11. In recent years CRH has justifiably traded at a premium to many of its competitors, given its much better geographical spread and its impeccable long-term financial record. Assuming that the company matches current broker forecasts, this premium rating should eventually return. It does seem as if share price movements in CRH so far this year reflect increased volatility and global share trading rather than any stock-specific problems associated with the company. As such the recent weakness in the company's share price could well prove to represent a very attractive long-term buying opportunity.