Political rift leaves Turkish central bank without governor

It's been the chief motor of a recovery that transformed Turkey from a bankrupt basket-case into one of the world's fastest-growing…

It's been the chief motor of a recovery that transformed Turkey from a bankrupt basket-case into one of the world's fastest-growing economies. But the Turkish central bank's newly-won reputation for rigour and independence is looking increasingly tarnished, as a political rift between the country's Islamist and secularist wings leaves it without a governor for the third week in a row.

The "nomination scandal", as the Turkish media has dubbed it, began when the former governor's term expired on March 14th.

Installed at the head of the bank during the 2001 crisis that wiped 8 per cent off Turkey's gross domestic product (GDP), Sureyya Serdengecti is widely seen as a saviour. His five years in charge saw GDP growth of 6-10 per cent, and inflation down from 70 per cent to a 40-year low of 7.9 per cent.

Omer Sabanci, the chairman of influential businessmen's association Tusaid, spoke for many when he described it as "incomprehensible that such a successful governor should not be begged to stay at his post". But political power in Turkey has always been a tool for advancing one's friends, according to analysts. And Mr Serdengecti was no friend of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), rooted in political Islam. With the government silent on the identity of its nominee for a new governor, most assumed the job would go to Mr Serdengecti's deputy and temporary stand-in, Erdem Basci.

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The prospect raised a storm of protest in Turkey's secularist media because Mr Basci had been friends with the economics minister at university and his wife wore a headscarf. That debate was stopped in its tracks last Tuesday when the Turkish president's office said it had never been asked to approve Mr Basci's appointment in the first place.

So who was the government's nominee? The riddle was finally answered this weekend with President Ahmet Necdet Sezer's announcement that he had vetoed British-trained banker Adnan Buyukdeniz.

This not a surprise. The bank Mr Buyukdeniz has worked with for 21 years and now runs - the partially Saudi Arabian-funded Albaraka Turk - is one of the few in Turkey to work according to Islamic principles, neither paying nor charging interest. It is hardly the ideal background for a central bank governor, one of whose tasks is to chair the committee that sets Turkish interest rates.

Opinions on why the AKP government should choose such a candidate continue to differ. Some point to Mr Buyukdeniz's opposition to the IMF-led programme the government has followed since 2002 as evidence the AKP is tiring of fiscal austerity and inflation-targeting.

But that seems unlikely. For months, small businessmen and exporters - both traditional AKP supporters - have been lobbying for government intervention to weaken the over-valued Turkish currency. In a departure from traditional economic populism, the AKP government led by ambitious prime minister Tayyip Erdogan continues to refuse.

Others see the nomination affair as a piece of political shadow-boxing. Never friendly, relations between the secular president and the AKP have been deteriorating in the run up to presidential elections next year. If that is true, Mr Erdogan could not have chosen a worse way to show his claws. Already unnerved by a potential reduction in global liquidity as US interest rates rise, Istanbul's stock exchange - the world's fastest growing equity market in 2005 - remained jittery this week.

On Wednesday, the Turkish lira slumped to its lowest level against the dollar this year. Together with rising bond interest, that will make repaying Turkey's huge public debt more difficult.

The AKP has promised to choose its new nominee as soon as Mr Erdogan returns from an Arab League summit. Current favourite is interim governor Erdem Basci.

"He's an expert on monetary policy, an excellent economist, the ideal candidate", says Bogazici University's Deniz Gokce. "The trouble is that the government's games-playing has damaged his credibility."

According to Serhan Cevik, a senior economist with Merril Lynch, it is also damaging the credibility of a bank which was only made independent in 2001.