In other industries, the phrase "in play" merely means there are several potential outcomes; in the telecommunications sector, it spells a frenzy of speculation, with no global or regional player eliminated from the gamut of possibilities.
The first incendiary question to be asked is whether anyone would be sufficiently interested in Eircom to pay some £3 billion to buy the bulk of the 35 per cent stake now for sale. (The maximum one buyer can purchase without launching a full bid is 29.9 per cent, unless they get special clearance under takeover rules.)
KPN, Telia and Eircom itself will spend the next few weeks finding out whether such buyers exist. If they cannot find one, the stake will be sold on the open market, a move that is likely to further depress the share price.
But the markets appear to believe Eircom will find a buyer, otherwise the share price would have plummeted yesterday instead of closing pretty much where it ended on Friday. Also, the company is making money - €160 million (£126 million) for the six months to the end of September - and it is by far the dominant player in the Republic's fixed-line and mobile markets.
These factors alone, plus a share price that is low by industry standards, make Eircom a reasonably attractive proposition. A large telecommunications company could probably purchase a significant stake in Eircom, then impose economies of scale and cost-cutting measures to maximise the return on the investment.
But the company would take on far more value for a buyer if some or all of Eircom's operations fit into an expansion strategy.
For example, if a US or even a Japanese telecoms firm were interested in gaining a foothold in the British market, Eircom's recent expansion there could prove a selling point. Eircom already has 80 staff in Britain constructing its business there, sourcing fibre optic cable for possible leasing, and seeking acquisitions. Two major US telecoms groups that expressed an interest in Telecom Eireann when it was seeking a strategic partner back in 1996 were Bell Atlantic and Ameritech. Both have now merged with other industry players, but remain possible suitors for Eircom.
SBC-Ameritech investments outside the US are already worth around $22 billion. The company is respected within the industry for bringing expertise and clout to its investments, many of which represent minority stakes. In Europe, the company has interests in Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the Ukraine.
The Bell Atlantic/GTE merger is expected to be completed by the first quarter of next year. The new company will control 23 per cent of Italy's Omnitel, as well as stakes in telephone companies in Greece, the Czech Republic, and the Slovak Republic.
Spokespersons for both US firms would not comment yesterday on speculation they might be interested in Eircom.
Other players represent other strategies. If, for example, Vodafone succeeded in its bid for Mannesmann, it would have to sell Orange. There has been speculation that France Telecom would buy Orange in these circumstances. As Eircell now represents up to half the value of Eircom, could France Telecom not take out Eircom, roll Eircell into Orange, and then sell off the land-line and data business?
But the company for which Eircom probably represents the best value is British Telecom. Currently, BT is said to be unhappy with Ocean, its joint venture with the ESB. If the former British state provider were to take a controlling stake in Eircom, it could offer island-to-island residential, business and data service, as well as a seamless mobile service, combining Eircell with Cellnet. BT already owns stakes in mobile companies in France, Italy Germany and the Netherlands, and may be planning to roll out a European network. BT would not comment yesterday, but its moves will be closely watched in the weeks ahead.
