Ground Floor: The influence of economic cycles on electorates is very pronounced in most democracies. The Republic is no exception, though the influence of a fast-growing economy on voting preferences might be less strong in this State than elsewhere.
Certainly, Irish voters seem reluctant to praise the Government for the present strength of the economy, partly because they realise that US multinationals are the linchpins of our success.
But it does not follow that a poor economic performance would not be attributed to the Government. In fact, an economic slowdown would be likely to elicit grave disfavour from the voters. A Government that sought credit for the good years would be an ideal scapegoat for the bad times.
Remember, many citizens who have ridden on the back of the Celtic Tiger have never experienced a downturn. Many people would be so shaken by such an experience that all of the new-found confidence built up during the boom might be undermined to devastating effect.
Before looking at election strategies for the spring of 2007, it might be useful to review the possibility of a slowdown between now and the end of the next term of Government around 2012. Is it likely that the economy will continue to thrive for the next six years or is it more likely that there will be a significant correction, something worse than a soft landing?
While no-one disputes the strength of the economy, few would understate the vulnerabilities that are still present. The exuberant property market casts a long shadow. The only argument perhaps is the degree of weakening that may occur and whether it might be accompanied by financial distress.
Loss of competitiveness, combined with a recent sharp fall in productivity is likely to give rise to substantial job losses over this time span, particularly in traditional industry. The current weakness of manufactured exports may be a straw in the wind. The only question is whether US multinationals will be able to offset the effects of deteriorating competitiveness.
If the US slows down, the effects on the Irish economy could be quite severe in terms of trade and investment. A more insular turn of American policy could, for example, weaken world trade and cause a rethink of corporate tax arrangements with third countries.
Since the Republic is a highly globalised, oil-dependent State, there is a host of external variables that could undermine our growth prospects. And our domestic policy instruments are so thin on the ground there would be virtually nothing any government could do to safeguard the economy.
The reliance on construction is unlikely to continue and a softening here could weaken the economy considerably, including the public finances.
How the growing burden of personal debt will play out is not entirely clear but it does seem to put an upper limit to consumption growth - which has kept the economy going for a couple of years - over the medium term. This is all the more likely since interest rates are expected to rise.
The consequences of poor investment decisions, especially by government, combined with infrastructural deficiencies, are likely to become all too apparent over the six-year period to 2012.
More generally, Ireland has in a sense completed its convergence on the most developed countries. This suggests that our growth from now on should be no more than the average of our peer group. The stark question that arises here is whether growth of about 3 per cent per annum would be enough to safeguard full employment. The answer is not encouraging.
In the light of these vulnerabilities, the post-election government, of whatever hue, may have to preside over a major economic setback at some stage during its tenure - and indeed cope with a shocked and irate electorate.
If this happened to a Fianna Fáil-led government the voters would probably exact a price at the subsequent election in 2012 but forgiveness would probably set in after that, mainly because Fianna Fáil was in power during the Celtic Tiger years.
But if the economy were to weaken during the tenure of a Fine Gael/Labour government, those parties might well suffer severe long-term damage with, ironically, Fianna Fáil being the ultimate beneficiary. Caution is needed to steer clear of this elephant trap.
To avoid the encroachment of a one-party state, it is to be hoped that Fianna Fáil forms the next government - and thereby catches the flak if and when the economy weakens.
It is possible that Fianna Fáil has already spotted the elephant trap. That could explain the recent wooing of the Labour party. Forming such a coalition could be seen as a form of risk-spreading or hedging.
After the results are in after the next election and the seats divided up, it might be wise if the opposition parties thought again about the wisdom of forming coalitions with a view to governing. From a political economy perspective this is a uniquely awkward time in our history.
