STUDY: Almost half of the jobs in 2015 will need a third-level qualification of some kind, the ESRI said yesterday as it predicted "solid rather than spectacular" employment growth from 2000 to 2015.

The number at work is expected to rise by around 400,000 - or 27,000 annually - from 1.58 million in 2000 to 1.75 million in 2005 and to 1.99 million in 2015, according to the FÁS/ESRI manpower forecasting study. While this is a slower rate of employment growth than in the 10 buoyant years from 1990 to 2000, it is somewhat greater than the pace of expansion that occurred over the longer period between 1981 and 2000, which involved a net rise of 24,000 annually, the ESRI said.

Employment among managers and professional workers is forecast to rise most rapidly, by nearly 45 per cent, or 206,000, between 2000 and 2015. The numbers in mainly semi-skilled sales and service work are also expected to rise significantly, by nearly 42 per cent, or more than 130,000.

The rise in those employed in manual activities and clerical work is predicted to be slower at 15 per cent and 11 per cent respectively over the 15-years, while agricultural employment is expected to fall to 5 per cent in 2015 from around 7 per cent in 2000.

"The occupational profile of employment in the future will be increasingly skilled," said Mr Jerry Sexton, one of the authors of the study. "We're forecasting solid growth over the full period, enough to absorb the outflow from the educational system and keep unemployment at a reasonably low level," said Mr Sexton.