It's the season of economic outlooks and forecasts. What then to make of the latest views from Europe and from our own Davy Stockbrokers? The former is alarmed and is urging us to take steps to lower inflation; the latter sees inflation continuing at its present levels but proving no brake on growth. It sees the current boom as having the potential to last another generation, or longer.

All this as our inflation rate hits 10-year highs at 4 per cent - 4.4 per cent on an EU-harmonised basis. So who to believe?

As ever with economics, there is no simple answer. However, I clearly remember not so long ago when the pound was handsomely above parity with sterling - yes sterling, never mind the dollar - and the pundits were telling us there was no possibility of a short-term return below parity as our exporters winced. Within weeks, the currency had torn up the script and the same pundits were explaining why it had been inevitable that the pound should now languish below sterling parity. Of course, that proves nothing . . . except the wisdom of scepticism.

Dominic Coyle can be contacted at dcoyle@irish-times.ie