OUR political masters are fighting on two separate fronts in the run up to the Budget. One is to agree what will be in the package. The other as shown by Pat Rabbitte's criticism of Dick Spring is to position themselves to claim that "their" proposals made it.

With such inter party rivalries to be overcome, it remains to be seen whether the Government can move beyond sound bite solutions to dealing with the long term unemployment crisis.

It is now clear that the Budget will be sold as one to attack unemployment. Tax relief will also be offered to the general body of taxpayers, but the indications are that it may be even less than last year.

The Budget's main focus this year will be on unemployment relief measures, which will involve tax and PRSI changes, reforms to social welfare and new approaches to the way the Government intervenes in the jobs market.

However one Budget cannot "tackle unemployment". The best it can do is to introduce some useful changes to the tax and social welfare systems and point the way towards future policy reforms. Many other areas of policy, apart from Budgetary matters, need to be addressed if the Government is serious about controlling unemployment. In many cases politically difficult choices must be made the debate on how to treat 18 and 19 year olds coming onto the live register illustrates the point. The momentum for change in a serious attack on unemployment must extend a long way beyond the few weeks leading up to the Budget during which the Cabinet has become exercised about the issue.

In tax and PRSI, reliefs in this Budget will be aimed at the lower paid to boost their after tax pay. Many of the measures will also benefit other taxpayers. For example, the expected increase in the £50 PRSI allowance which exempts the first £50 of income from the 5.5 per cent PRSI levy will provide a bonus to most taxpayers, but will be of proportionately greater benefit to the lower paid. The cash benefit of raising the ceiling to, say, £80 would still be a relatively modest £1.65 a week. However as the £50 allowance was only introduced last year the total benefit over the two years would be £4.40 a week.

The Budget is also expected to increase the initial exemption limit below which no tax is paid. This is now just over £71 a week and is expected to increase to around £73 a week, benefiting a small group of lowly paid workers.

The other major move on the tax front is likely to be a further extension of the 27 per cent income tax band. This will benefit any taxpayers now paying at the higher 48 per cent rate. However it is of no benefit to the those who do not have the privilege of paying income tax at 48 per cent. Last year the 27 per cent band was widened by 8.5 per cent, or £700 in cash terms, and a further rise ahead of inflation is likely this year.

The Budget will also signal new approaches to the way the Government intervenes in the jobs market. For example, a scheme allowing the long term unemployed to retain a portion of their cash payments for a period after returning to work will be expanded and new measures may also allow the retention of secondary benefits such as rent reliefs and child dependent allowance for a period. The Community Employment Scheme is to receive another face lift.

Here again one Budget can only chip away at the edges of a tax and social welfare system which in many of its aspects is anti work. Most of the measures introduced are likely to be carrots but an element of stick is expected in measures to oblige 18 and 19 year old school leavers to participate in training and educational programmes and be genuinely available for work. A special subsidy for employers hiring the long term unemployed may also feature on Budget day

What is new about the thrust of many of these measures is that some will discriminate positively in favour of the long term unemployed. How far the Government is willing to go down this politically sensitive road remains to be seen.

In a weld argued commentary on the proposals being discussed by Cabinet, the Irish National Organisation of the Unemployed identifies the negative factors which have hindered previous attempts to tackle long term unemployment, including lack of clarity in goals, poor planning, institutional turf wars and "the dominance of fashion and prejudice over real experience and research."

The message to the Government is that new schemes and policies must be properly designed, communicated and carried through, if they are to have any chance of succeeding. If the Government is serious about tackling long term unemployment, then its policy approach needs to extend well beyond next Tuesday.