Tissues at the ready: the John Lewis Christmas television advertisement is about to be unveiled, marking the official start of the festive season.

It may only be the first week in November, but the online launch of the department store group’s Christmas campaign has been set for 8am on Friday and excitement is already at fever pitch.

What will be the theme? Which song will supply the soundtrack? Who will sing the cover version? How many cute animals will there be? And how many tissues will you need?

Social media is already abuzz with questions, but John Lewis is saying nothing until Friday. There was a brief teaser ad aired on television at the weekend, during the X Factor. It featured a mysterious shot of the moon, which seems to fit with speculation the Oasis song, Half the World Away, might be the soundtrack .

Christmas tradition

Although they are now a Christmas tradition, John Lewis ads haven’t been around that long. Middle England’s favourite retailer launched its first festive ad in in 2007, with a stylish shoot using gifts from the store and their shadows to create the silhouette of a girl and her dog in the snow.

It was simple, but effective. Since then, however, the ads have become much bigger and more expensive, and the campaigns have taken on a life of their own. There was the heartwarming tale of friendship in the Hare and the Bear in 2013, while in 2012 the stars were Mr and Mrs Snowman and his long trek to get her the perfect present – from John Lewis, of course. The previous year featured a little boy waiting for the big day to arrive – not to receive presents but so he could give them.

Last year’s spectacular, a two-minute ad featuring Monty the Penguin, cost the retailer some £7 million to make, but the media frenzy surrounding it generated millions more pounds of free publicity. The online ad was viewed 2.5 million times within 12 hours of its online launch. To date, it has generated almost 24 million page views on You Tube.

Expectations are high, but are the stakes. Retailers have been having a tough time, as consumers’ disposable incomes remain stretched amid Britain’s slow recovery. Stores are having to work hard to get shoppers to part with cash.

And that’s what the Christmas ad campaigns are all about. Although John Lewis is the most eagerly anticipated, almost all the other major retailers have their own costly campaigns and some, including Asda and Lidl, have already launched. This Sunday will see the Marks & Spencer ad, along with Waitrose, the supermarkets side of John Lewis.

The autumn selling season has already got off to a lively start for the retail sector, with bumper business reported last weekend for Halloween. Retails experts says October 31st is the nation’s second-biggest party night, after New Year’s Eve, and estimate shoppers splashed out £500 million on everything from fake blood and fangs to vampire capes and pumpkins.

Bargain-hunter scuffles

As they gear up for Christmas, the next big hurdle for retailers is Black Friday, which, like Halloween, is becoming an increasingly important date. It falls on 27th November this year and stores groups are keen to avoid a repetition of the chaotic scenes of last year, when scuffles broke out among the bargain hunters and police were called to restore order.

It’s also a big day for online shopping but the worry for many retailers is that Black Friday will simply bring business forward from the all-important final few weeks.

And, as some retailers found last year, having a successful Black Friday is not always good news. Some store groups pulled in the orders online but then struggled to deliver the goods, angering customers and generating unwelcome publicity.

The advertising blitz has started earlier this year and there’s another festive tradition that’s come early this year too – the pre-Christmas profits warning. Home Retail Group, owner of Argos and Homebase, won the dubious distinction of becoming the first retailer to issue a pre-Christmas profits alert, warning on October 21st it did not expect to meet forecasts, partly because it was having to spend so much to take on extra vans and drivers for Black Friday.

Fiona Walsh is business editor of theguardian.com