Ryanair puts its sales show on the road

RYANAIR executives and their advisers are now on "marketing roadshows" throughout the main investment centres in the US and Europe…

RYANAIR executives and their advisers are now on "marketing roadshows" throughout the main investment centres in the US and Europe trying to convince investors that they should buy shares in the airline.

These roadshows are crucial gauges of investors interest and with the spectre of the aborted flotation of GPA hanging over the Ryan family there will be some nervousness until the issue is away.

At the roadshows, the Ryanair team will put its case to institutional investors and answer any questions raised. It will be aiming to convince the people who manage large pension and other funds that Ryanair is a good place to put their money.

Strong and growing economies in the airlines key markets of Ireland and Britain help to underpin forecasts of strong passenger and revenue growth in years to come. The company has a record of steadily increasing profits over the last six years, even if 50 per cent of operating profits were paid out as a performance incentive to executive directors in fiscal 1995, 1996 and 1997.

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Ryanair has managed to expand its routes and keep fares low while growing profits through a system of tight cost control. The company has a good safety record with no serious accidents in 12 years of operation. And if world stock markets remain strong over the next three weeks, the company will find it easier to sell the 54 million shares on offer.

But what questions will potential investors have for the Ryanair team?

The safety record of the operation is likely to be a major concern for the US investors who will be very important to Ryanair. In the US market, low cost airlines, with the notable exception of the very successful South West Airlines on which Ryanair has modelled itself, have a poor passenger safety record. Investors will want to be convinced that Ryanair does not cut costs on fleet, maintenance and replacement parts at the expense of passenger safety.

Potential investors will also want to be assured that safety will not suffer when Ryanair feels the market pressure to maintain profits growth as a publicly quoted company.

Cost control will also concern potential investors. Ryanair has built its low fare, no frills operation through keeping a tight control on operating costs. There was a swift rejection this week of a trade union attack on "bad pay and conditions" at the airline. But as profits increase, it may be more difficult to keep as tight a rein on all cost areas.

The company will be adamant that this is and will remain the very basis of Ryanair operations low costs allow low fares which stimulate passenger traffic which in turn allows the company to grow profits.

Potential investors will want to know the arrangements for executive bonuses following the revelation that bonus of £24 million were paid to three executive directors over the past three years.

Deregulation in European markets will concern US investors who have seen several airline collapses since US markets were deregulated in 1978. The US airline industry has now stabilised and posted record profits for 1996. It was the fourth consecutive year of improved results.

The US industry has been helped by limited capacity growth, good cost control, moderate fuel prices and strong revenue growth. However, US analysts said it is the high price/high cost airlines which are generating profits. With the notable exception of South West Airlines, many of the low fares/restricted service operators are still losing money.

Sentiment among US investors will be important to Ryanair and this will be influenced by the performance of US airline companies. But Ryanair does not service the US market. It faces a very different European airline markets where capacity is still increasing with new low cost airlines entering deregulated markets and the major airlines are just beginning to tackle competition from the discount carriers.

Ryanair will argue that after 12 years in operation the company has developed the right formula to operate a low fares carrier and generate profits.

Ryanair executives now have to satisfy investors on these and other issues to ensure the success of the flotation.