Share price rise reflects market satisfaction

Since the beginning of the year, Kerry Group's share price has risen by 22 per cent, and by 19 per cent since the Dalgety acquisition…

Since the beginning of the year, Kerry Group's share price has risen by 22 per cent, and by 19 per cent since the Dalgety acquisition was announced in late January. That impressive performance is partly due to the overall strength of the stock market.

But it also reflects satisfaction in the markets with the Dalgety deal and, to a lesser extent, the improved liquidity in the shares following the £50 million placing with institutions and the £16 million placing with Kerry employees at the end of March.

Yesterday's figures did not include any major surprises, although they were ahead of forecasts. In the current year, analysts see profits moving towards £92 million followed by £108 million in 1999 as the impact of the Dalgety deal kicks in and the debt is reduced by strong cash-flow. After the Dalgety and Brazil deals, Kerry's debt will be around £488 million, once the proceeds of the £16 million placing with Kerry employees are received at the end of March. But analysts believe Kerry will be able to generate free cash of at least £60 million in the current year, allowing the debt to be reduced to around £420 million by end-1998 and towards £350 million by the end of 1999.

While large-scale acquisitions will be low on Mr Denis Brosnan's priority list over the next year or two, the decision to invest £7.3 million in Brazil shows that the group will continue taking toeholds in emerging markets.

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At its current share price, Kerry is trading in line or ahead of peer group companies such as McCormick's, Universal Foods and Cultor. On that basis, the shares might seem fully valued until it becomes clear how quickly the Dalgety integration and debt pay-down is progressing.