Given all the other things on British Prime Minister Tony Blair's mind, he could be forgiven for thinking that the issue of the euro will quietly disappear. If (when?) the Treasury pronounces that Britain is not yet ready - economically speaking - for the euro, Mr Blair might be nursing the hope that we have all grown so bored of the single currency, and so annoyed with French anti-Americanism, that most of us will hardly notice.

Politicians are people, or so they would have us believe, and behave accordingly. Most of the time they act in a purely self-interested manner; occasionally they show flashes of altruism and an understanding of the common good.

Mr Blair's stance on Iraq is curious because it is hard to categorise. His alliance with US President George W. Bush is costing him his precious standing in the opinion polls and is clearly alienating him from vast swathes of his party. For a man who has courted popularity so intensively, it is tough to figure out just where he thinks the advantage lies.

Perhaps he is revealing himself to be a high-stakes gambler. Military victory in Iraq will disarm all of his critics, not just Saddam Hussein. Perhaps this is just too cynical an interpretation. Maybe Mr Blair is a man of principle after all, and sees Britain's place at the US's side, whatever the cost.

With all of these issues clearly to the fore, the question of the euro must seem almost parochial. In fact, many European problems - previously a matter of "destiny" for Mr Blair - might now be seen in a different light.

French President Jacques Chirac has exposed what we always suspected - all French policy is dictated by selfish motives and questions of broader moral consequences or simple matters of the common good must never be allowed to infect decision-making.

Mr Bernard Connolly, former head of the European Commission's monetary affairs department, famously called it the "rotten heart of Europe". Never has it been so obvious.

Which is a bit inconvenient for Mr Blair. UK europhiles have always had a couple of things going for them. One very good argument for Europe has been its past. The EU - including the single currency - has stopped history. Europe (at least its Western bit) no longer fights wars.

One consequence of the current transatlantic spat is that many Americans say that this post-modern version of events is nonsense. Some argue that the main reason Germany and France no longer go to war every 50 years or so is the presence of a rather large US army based in Germany. Europe's great achievement, peace, is, on this line of reasoning, not all that it is cracked up to be.

Another powerful weapon in the europhile armoury is the nuttiness of the opposition. The weird and wonderful collection of characters who stand against the euro is often an eloquent testimony to why many people nervously accept the case for Europe. This illustrates a more general point working in Mr Blair's favour: opposition to Europe is typified by the current membership of the Tory Party. Just as many people end up pro-euro because of the sad nature of the anti-single currency camp, so lots of voters end up voting for Mr Blair because of the unelectability of the Conservative opposition. But the euro opposition may not look so ragged going forward.

Even if Mr Blair delays or cancels the euro decision, some people are clamouring for a referendum on another issue. By the end of this year, or perhaps some time during the first half of 2004, there is going to be yet another European Intergovernmental Conference, this time to discuss, and presumably ratify, the European Constitution being drafted by ex-French president Mr Valéry Giscard d'Estaing.

Referenda on such issues are not obligatory in the UK and Mr Blair may want to avoid one since many people in Europe are arguing that acceptance of the new treaty will be a test of EU membership: accept or leave is the gathering cry. (The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, given his trials and tribulations surrounding the Nice Treaty, might want to avoid a referendum on this one but he probably won't have the choice.)

Europe and the euro may now be as interesting and as relevant as French foreign policy but they cannot be simply written off. When geopolitical tensions subside there are several ways in which Europe will resume centre stage. Britain's decision on the euro may rapidly be approaching something of a foregone conclusion but it is still a decision that must formally be taken.

Chris Johns is chief strategist with ABN AMRO Securities, London. All opinions expressed are entirely personal.