The Margin can't help but smile wryly as the annual Budget build-up gets underway. The Minister for Finance warns that things aren't as good as they look. Union leaders respond that if he doesn't give enough away, there will be no further national agreements. Everyone starts talking about Scrooge versus Santa Claus.

The rest of the play is predictable enough. The Minister will continue to play down expectations, the Progressive Democrats will "insist" that big tax cuts are required and the unions will continue to shout from the sidelines.

By the time December 3rd arrives, the only question will be which rabbits Mr McCreevy will pull from his generous budgetary hat. The Margin's money is on a mixture of tax rate cuts, the introduction of a new 20 per cent rate and an expansion of the tax bands and allowances.