POLITICS: They used to say that a Bavarian could never become chancellor of Germany. The inhabitants of the proud and prosperous "free state" are just too conservative, too Roman Catholic, too provincial and too stubbornly independent to win the votes of the rest of the country.

It was what political analysts concluded after Mr Franz Josef Strauss, the larger-than-life former Bavarian leader, was decisively defeated for the federal post by Mr Helmut Schmidt, the Social Democrat chancellor, in the 1980 general election.
Twenty-two years later Mr Edmund Stoiber, Mr Strauss's right-hand man in that campaign and state premier in Munich today, is determined to prove the soothsayers wrong. As the official candidate of the centre-right opposition in Germany to challenge Gerhard Schröder as chancellor at the forthcoming poll in
September, he stands a good chance of wreaking revenge for his mentor's defeat. Encouragingly for Mr Stoiber, the combined forces of the Christian Democratic Union and his own Christian Social Union have a clear lead over Mr Schröder's Social Democratic party in the polls.
Although they may have shared the same political philosophy, the personal and physical contrast between Mr Stoiber and Mr Strauss could scarcely be more striking.
The latter was the caricature of a boisterous Bavarian, expansive in girth and behaviour. Mr Stoiber looks rather more like an austere headmaster from an exclusive school: immaculate in three-piece suits, with rimless spectacles. He might be mistaken for a northern Prussian, although he hails from Oberaudorf in the foothills of the Alps, on the Austrian border.
The 60-year-old Bavarian premier plays down the prospects of being carried to office on a European conservative tide. But he has drawn a lesson from the rise of the far-right National Front in France, led by Mr Jean-Marie Le Pen - and the poor performances of Mr Jacques Chirac, the French president, and Mr Lionel Jospin, his prime minister.
"Both candidates made a big mistake," he says. "They did not address the issues people were concerned about in France: internal security and immigration. So they allowed the far right to infiltrate the middle-class camp."
Mr Stoiber is not going to make the same mistake. The economy will be his top priority but both immigration and crime will be important. He has staked out clear ground to the right of Mr Schröder.
"We think it is not right to encourage immigration when we have four million unemployed," he says. "We should do more to integrate the immigrants already in our country."
He is not arguing for an outright immigration ban - he still wants to attract skilled workers in high-technology sectors - but he does want the inflow reduced.
Mr Stoiber is also outspoken on the need for reform of the institutions of the European Union, although he rejects the label of eurosceptic.
When he visited London this week, he lectured Mr Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative party leader, on the need to engage in Europe. But he criticises EU decision-making as opaque and wants a clear division of competences between Brussels, national capitals and regional governments.
"We need to create a new order in Europe where we say clearly where the responsibilities lie," he says.
It is a new Europe that will cost more and include many more poor member-states. That is a political necessity. But he is adamant that a clear geographic line must be drawn: countries such as Turkey and Ukraine lie outside. The Balkan countries belong inside.
He wants more European integration on issues such as the environment and internal security. He believes in a common asylum policy, and closer co-ordination of EU foreign and defence policy.
He wants Europe to be a partner of the US and a healthy competitor. To do that, it must spend more on defence.
Mr Stoiber is no crusading liberal on economic policy, although he proposes substantial reform of German taxes. He wants to cut €10 billion from the national tax bill and reduce public spending from nearly 50 per cent to less than 40 per cent of national income. He admits that will be possible only if he can generate more economic growth.

He is sharply critical of the failure of the present government's
                      economic policy - it has left Germany at the back of the European
                      economic train, he says - but he remains cautious about the more
                      sensitive areas of reform such as the labour market.

"There are two words that are seen by people today as absolutely
                      negative," he says. "One is 'standstill' and the other is 'reform'. Both
                      are seen as negative but that is a contradiction. There will be a
                      standstill if there is no reform. So we need understanding. I need to
                      have reforms but I must take people with me."

If Mr Stoiber wins in September, Germans will have to get used to a
                      very different chancellor from Mr Schröder, who is popular for his
                      relaxed and accessible style. On a recent visit to Neubrandenburg,
                      Mr Stoiber made a valiant effort to break the ice by taking to the
                      shop floor of an aircraft factory.

It was an artificial occasion. The divide between the bemused
                      boiler-suited workers and the candidate, who looked decidedly
                      uncomfortable, was too great to bridge on a short visit.

As one apprentice put it as Mr Stoiber was leaving: "Before he
                      arrived we were wondering what sort of person he was. Now we're
                      not really any wiser." - (Financial Times Service)