Strong fundamentals underpin Irish stock rally

Investor/An insider's guide to the market: The removal of uncertainty after the decisive outcome to the US presidential election…

Investor/An insider's guide to the market: The removal of uncertainty after the decisive outcome to the US presidential election has acted as a catalyst for a mini-rally in the American equity markets.

The rally was then given more substance with the announcement that US non-farm payrolls increased by 337,000 in October compared with expectations for a much lower number of 175,000.

This is the largest monthly gain since March and it brings the average monthly gain over the last three months to 225,000 - which is quite close to the average monthly gain of 237,000 that was the norm during the 1996-2000 boom period.

If these employment figures are corroborated by upcoming data releases, then it would confirm that the US economy had successfully manoeuvred through the summer "soft patch".

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In the currency markets, the stronger employment data had only a fleeting positive impact on the US dollar. The euro touched an all-time high, fractionally under the psychologically important $1.30 level as the markets continued to focus on the large US fiscal deficit and also on the enormous trade deficit.

However, the stronger euro did not prevent European equity markets from joining in the American-led rally. Investors were further cheered by the pullback in the oil price to just below $50 (€38.71) per barrel. Inventories of crude oil have been building over the past six weeks and this is exerting a calming influence on the oil markets.

As long as the coming winter is not too severe, the oil price may well decline back into the low $40s per barrel range in coming months.

The Irish equity market has reacted positively to this global improvement in market sentiment, but it has been further boosted from ongoing good stock-specific news.

Ryanair reported half-year numbers that were much better than market expectations due to a 20 per cent increase in revenues compared with the same period last year. However, the low-fares airline is now fully exposed to the higher oil price as the company no longer has the benefit of hedges put in place when the oil price was lower.

Nevertheless, it does seem that the fuel surcharges imposed by the full-service carriers have enabled Ryanair to edge up its fares without losing customers.

The market reacted very positively to Ryanair's results and the shares bounced sharply off their year lows of just under €3.70. They have since improved further and are now trading around the €5 level.

Despite this sharp price rise, the shares remain well below the 12-month high of €7.50. Management continues to expect very tough trading conditions this winter and also the company would incur much higher costs if there was another surge in the price of oil.

Another company to report good news this week was Elan Corporation. The share price has surged this year on news that Antegren, the company's multiple sclerosis (MS) drug, had been fast tracked for regulatory approval. It is expected that the US Food and Drug Administration will approve the drug before year-end.

Elan released trial data this week which showed that the drug was performing somewhat better than expectations. The share price had been strong prior to the announcement but it has since improved further and is trading around €22.

Elan now has a market capitalisation close to €9 billion and, therefore, any movement in its share price has a significant impact on the overall ISEQ index. If Antegren proves to be as successful as many in the industry expect, Elan could well overtake AIB as the market's largest stock as measured by market capitalisation.

The MS market is estimated to be worth $7-$8 billion over the next few years and Antegren is expected to become the leading product in the market. The share price will, therefore, be very sensitive to the newsflow concerning Antegren between now and year-end.

One of the market's mid-cap stocks, DCC, also delivered good news when it announced a rise in interim pre-tax profits of 13 per cent. Earnings per share grew at a faster 17.7 per cent pace due to the company's policy of buying back some of its own shares. In the past year, share buy-backs have amounted to €51 million.

DCC operates across several industry sectors including energy, IT distribution, healthcare, food/beverages and housebuilding. Profits grew across all sectors and were further boosted by bolt-on acquisitions.

The interim dividend was increased by 13.5 per cent and the company indicated that the outlook for the second half (to end-March 2005) was favourable, with good profit growth expected for the year.

At first glance, the current rally in the Irish equity market may seem to be merely in reaction to the improvement in international sentiment.

However, closer inspection of individual stocks shows that it is firmly based on strong underlying company fundamentals.