THE VIEW FROM THE GROUND: As the euro debate continues, the US remains the centre of attention, with global economies dependent on an upturn there
Readers may have noticed that this column has been an almost euro comment-free zone since January 1st. This was on the basis that so much of the media was already taken up by the discovery that people will spend any currency once they get goods in return that it seemed unnecessary for me to talk about the euro's impact. And, of course, the euro is nothing new to financial markets, which have been trading in it since 1999.
Despite the fireworks and excitement of the appearance of actual notes and coin (although there are so many damned coins), nothing has changed that much for either the euro zone or the currency.
There were some rumours that the Chinese intended to double their euro holdings, but that hasn't made any difference to the exchange rate, while Duisenberg's exciting prediction that there would be a gradual recovery in the euro-zone area didn't exactly set my pulse racing either.
But I have to admit I really enjoyed hopping over to Spain for a few days knowing the money in my purse would buy whatever I wanted without any hassle.
And it did. And it was great. Because I worked in banking for so long, I'm absolutely hopeless at remembering to change money if I'm going abroad (in the bank we just rang down on the day and got whatever we wanted). So I have this horrible habit of turning up overseas with whatever coins are left over from my last journey - which is never very much - and then wondering where on earth the nearest ATM is.
None of that worry on this trip, where I positively enjoyed handing over my euros - my €2 coin with the harp was the first one they'd seen in Alicante, and was much admired. The Spanish papers are having the same debate as us about whether or not the changeover has pushed up prices; the general consensus is that in restaurants and bars it has - although when you pay €38 (£30) for a great three-course meal for two including wine and aperitifs, it's hard to feel you're being overcharged.
The other debate, of course, is about Britain's possible entry into the system, and this has given the ex-pat community hours of fun. My British friends (despite the comments from some of the more lurid British papers about the difficulty of using a different currency, and the sacrosanct sovereignty of the pound) have found the changeover as easy as anyone else and think it would be a good idea if Britain joined.
But not yet, they hope, simply because many of them receive income from Britain and, of course, with the euro still paddling along the bottom of the exchange rate pond despite the ECB's enthusiasm, they're making lots of money on the exchange right now. But most of them think that the sovereignty issue is a waste of time in an increasingly global economy.
Given the entire world is dependent on an upturn in the US (and there's no denying that every positive economic forecast is depending on an upturn in the US), domestic policy becomes less relevant in isolation.
Perhaps finance ministers can tweak around the edges, but it's global corporate profitability that calls the shots, not governments.
And not the Fed either, though Alan Greenspan's speech to the Bay Area Council Conference in San Francisco earlier this month was given a lot of coverage.
According to Greenspan, the economic cycle still depends on the "evolution of corporate profits and capital investment". And, despite the best efforts of the Fed, corporate profitability is still poor, and investment still marginal.
In fact, corporate profits have been falling since the last quarter in 2000 and are down about 22 per cent from their peak levels a year earlier.
Given the current continuing uncertainties, even the most optimistic investors are still holding back. Nobody is investing in wing-and-a-prayer stuff any more. They want real returns and they're prepared to wait until they find the right investment.
Greenspan also said (somewhat unsurprisingly) that the "long-run picture remains bright", but that's not the kind of talk that inspires those with money to invest now. Opinion is divided on whether there will be a further rate cut from the Fed at the end of the month but it hasn't been ruled out.
There does, however, seem to be a general sentiment that technology losses are beginning to bottom out. Sun Microsystems reported a net loss of $431 million (€488 million) in the last quarter, but also reported that it was seeing signs of progress. Revenues have increased by about 9 per cent, although that's still down almost 40 per cent against the same period last year.
Nevertheless, things are improving, although one of Sun's main problems is that so many of its customers have disappeared into the ether that it has a big rebuilding job on its hands.
Dell Computer, too, has increased its forecasts on quarterly sales and said that its operating results for the fourth quarter had been stronger than anticipated. But it will still take time for Greenspan's double objectives of corporate profitability and investment to actually take hold.
On my return from my sun-filled sojourn (even though the temperatures aren't that high in Spain at this time of year, the sun still shines and you can happily sit at pavement cafés without the need for heavy-duty patio heaters), I did wonder about the profitability of airport shops in the euro regime.
Most of them have already been hit by the loss of duty-free, but they were also a handy means of dumping unwanted coinage by buying oversized Toblerone bars.
If we can all bring our coins home with us, there's no need to spend them on rock-hard chocolate, tacky pens or designer bags by designers you've never heard of. Many airport shops pay a percentage of their takings to the airport company - I wonder will a fall-off in revenue be used as an excuse to hike ticket prices at some time in the future?
Finally, a small note of thanks to Nessie Bergin who has kindly pointed me in the direction of a padded, waterproof holder for my errant mobile phone. I will let you know how I get on.
