BELFAST BRIEFING:NEW FIGURES showing that a record number of people in the North have applied to join the police force may say more about the dramatic shift in the local economy than the changes in the political landscape. The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) has confirmed that almost 10,000 people have applied for 440 jobs.

The service employs about 7,500 full-time police officers and 2,700 police staff, making it one of Northern Ireland’s largest employers.

Compare this to the largest manufacturer in the North, Bombardier Aerospace, which employs in the region of 5,000 people and is in the process of axing about 1,000 jobs at its four plants.

Bombardier is a crucial player in the North’s economy but its future is dependent on a volatile business.

It may offer its employees the chance to be part of an organisation that is “changing the face of aviation”, but Bombardier is not in a position to promise that there will not be further job losses in the North.

In contrast, the PSNI is in a position to offer people an opportunity to be part of the changing face of policing in the North.

It is advertising the fact that it can offer employees “a challenging career with a competitive reward package and opportunities for development”.

In the post-ceasefire, credit-crunch-gripped Northern Ireland, the PSNI appears to have emerged as a safe bet when it comes to employment opportunities – for both communities. According to the PSNI’s figures, 37 per cent of the 10,000 applications are from Catholics.

So what does this wave of enthusiasm to join the police service say about the Northern Irish economy?

Does it reflect the fact that jobs are increasingly difficult to come by, as illustrated by the latest labour market statistics?

Last month, the total number of people out of work in the North climbed to 49,000.

According to official statistics, in the past 12 months the North’s unemployment rate has increased from 4.6 per cent to 6.1 per cent.

It is estimated that 5.3 per cent of the workforce – 46,100 people – are now claiming unemployment benefits.

Job prospects are poor in the North and it is widely acknowledged that further job losses are inevitable.

But a rapidly rising unemployment rate is not the only reality check being endured by the North’s economy at the moment.

Research from the University of Ulster shows house prices have fallen by an average of 35 per cent in the past year.

Thousands of pounds have been wiped off the value of property across the North – particularly property purchased at the height of the short-lived property boom.

It has created a negative equity environment in an economy where job anxiety is high. On top of this, personal insolvency levels soared in the first quarter of this year, with 458 people being declared insolvent – a 39 per cent rise on the same period last year.

Overall, the combination of falling house prices, soaring personal debt problems and a rapidly rising unemployment rate paints a pretty convincing picture of where the Northern Ireland economy is moored.

But if the latest rush of applications for jobs in the PSNI sends a signal about the North’s economy, it also carries a note of optimism about how changing circumstances can create opportunities.

Various studies have suggested that the impact of the economic slowdown may be softening in the North.

According to the most recent study from the cross-Border body, InterTradeIreland, businesses in the North are more optimistic about their prospects than their counterparts in the South.

Its research also suggests fewer firms in Northern Ireland are cutting jobs and fewer companies are reporting falls in turnover.

How this research will reflect the reality on the ground in terms of new jobs and greater consumer spending remains to be seen. But if firms in the North believe circumstances are changing – albeit slowly – there is a chance that the economic upturn will arrive eventually.

Life may have changed beyond recognition in a relatively short space of time on the political front, as demonstrated by the 10,000 applications for the PSNI jobs.

But the problems on the North’s economic horizon are likely to require just as big a shift in attitudes before there is any prospect of a breakthrough.