The Government expects special investigations led by the Revenue Commissioners to deliver a gain of close to €200 million to the Exchequer this year, according to Department of Finance estimates.
The department's forecast for an exceptional gain of between €180 and €200 million in 2006 is virtually unchanged from last year. The 2005 forecast was, however, far surpassed, just as it had been in the previous year.
In the 2005 budget, Minister for Finance Brian Cowen pencilled in a €200 million Exchequer inflow from Revenue special investigations. In the event, the yield was closer to €500 million, with the exact figure to be revealed in full-year Exchequer returns to be published today.
In 2004, when the projected inflow from special investigations was €150 million, the actual out-turn was higher than €700 million.
To date, the Revenue has raised more than €2 billion from various special enquiries, including investigations into bogus non-resident accounts, offshore assets and life assurance policies. In 2006, special focus will fall on the construction sector.
Figures in December's Budget documents show that the Government was expecting tax receipts for 2005 to surpass expectations by €1.8 billion, or 1.1 per cent of overall economic output.
The Exchequer was expected to end the year in deficit by about €850 million. This compares to an earlier forecast for a deficit of €2.8 billion.
The Department of Finance saw a shortfall in Government spending and a higher-than-expected tax inflow as the main drivers behind the outperformance. Based on the Budget documents, today's Exchequer returns should show that the Government spent about €300 million less than planned last year.
Almost all areas of tax income, including capital gains tax, capital acquisitions tax and stamp duties, are thought to have surpassed the Department of Finance's forecasts for the year.
Stamp duties are likely to show a particular outperformance, with today's figures likely to show an inflow of about €2.6 billion, compared to a forecast return of €1.6 billion.
