Thanksgiving gives everyone a break

Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US, falling on a Thursday, effectively broke up the week

Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US, falling on a Thursday, effectively broke up the week. Since Thanksgiving means more to the average American than Christmas, the scramble was on to take time off and extend the holiday period. None of our US counterparts were particularly interested in markets this week which was probably a welcome relief, actually, given that the US bond market has been spooked since the Fed's 0.25 percentage point rate hike.

European markets had reacted well to the ECB's 0.5 percentage point increase on the basis that it was the last for the foreseeable future, but US players aren't entirely convinced that the Fed won't hike again.

The statement from the Fed afterwards didn't rule out another hike, although it's hard to be convinced that it's embarking on a round of tightening and it's hardly realistic for Alan Greenspan and friends to categorically state that they won't raise rates in the foreseeable future.

As always, it depends on the sustainability of the non-inflationary growth scenario in the States. And as always, there are differing views. Anyway, the US players disappeared to eat apple pie and drink cans of Bud while leaving the rest of us to tiptoe around markets which are already exhibiting some year-end flakiness.

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In fact there were all sorts of things to look at this week - the Iraqi decision to reject a UN plan to extend an export agreement for a couple of weeks drove oil prices to almost $30 (€29) a barrel.

The Iraqis are looking for an end to economic sanctions, part of which includes control of their oil exports by the UN under an oil-for-food agreement. The current agreement was due to expire on Saturday which was why the UN wanted to extend it but the Iraqis were having none of it.

I suppose if they're going to hold back on exports, a week when Barcelona airport was forced to close because of snowfalls is as good as any.

The main European story continues to be how the Vodafone bid for Mannesmann is being played out. For those of you who haven't been following events, Mannesmann, which made a massive bid for Orange a few weeks ago, is now trying to fight off a hostile bid for the Mannesmann group itself from Vodafone. Vodafone had been interested in Orange too.

The maze of mobile telephone companies is becoming harder and harder to shuffle around but the fact that so many companies are trying to gain the prominent position in the market shows how valuable a franchise it is.

Vodafone is currently the world's largest mobile phone company with more than 31.4 million customers. Mannesmann's expertise has, in the past, been in the engineering and auto-manufacturing sectors, only expanding into telecoms fairly recently. But since its acquisition of Omnitel, Infostrada, Otelo and Orange it's the largest European mobile phone operator with around 20 million subscribers.

If Vodafone succeeds in taking over Mannesmann the company would have a huge subscriber base and control two of Europe's three largest mobile phone companies, but there is a snag.

Hostile bids don't succeed in Germany and the fact that this bid is coming from a foreign company makes it seem twice as hostile.

Most of Mannesmann's workers are actually employed in the original areas of engineering and auto-manufacture and, although Vodafone says that there won't be redundancies, the workers think that this only relates to the company's telecoms sector.

So they're opposed to the deal. Especially since Mannesmann has since proposed selling off the original core engineering interests to hang on to their mobile phone interests.

Additionally, Hutchinson Whampoa Limited, from whom Mannesmann bought Orange, has supported Mannesmann's rejection of the Vodafone bid and has stated that it's going to hold on to a 10.1 per cent stake in Mannesmann for at least 18 months.

In the meantime, German politicians aren't too impressed with the bid either. Mannesmann is based in North Rhine Westphalia and the region's prime minister, Mr Wolfgang Clement, is quoted as saying that Mannesmann "shouldn't become a branch of a London corporation".

Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is asking for an EU-wide agreement to make hostile takeovers more difficult, although Tony Blair wants Vodafone to be given a fair hearing in the bid. But Mr Schroeder doesn't want the "culture" of Mannesmann to be lost . . . so much for a European story, I suppose.

While all this is going on, Mannesmann bonds have gyrated all over the place and the share price has fallen to below Vodafone's equivalent offer price. Vodafone's shares are lower too. Dealers are on information overload as they try to analyse the next bit of information. The takeover will be good for someone. But who, (apart from the investment bankers) has yet to be decided.

The mobile phone which I bought at the beginning of this year is now a technological dinosaur. The guy in the phone shop in town on Sunday wanted me to buy a new one for £400 (€508). I'm not the sort of person who should be let out with anything worth £400 in losable equipment in her back pocket.

Especially as, having programmed so many phone numbers into it now, I have no other record of them. I knew I was starting on the slippery slope to utter reliance on technology when I got the damned thing and I feel ashamed that I'm even considering a cute little number in brushed chrome instead of something that just does the job. (Actually, I wish they'd make them in rubber. It'd be safer whenever I drop it, which I do on a regular basis.)

Loads of people have been sharing their phone-on-a-train stories with me since I related the tale about the bloke resigning from his job on the Dublin-Belfast route.

I think that once people start talking on their phone they imagine a protective bubble around them, where no-one can see them or hear them. Especially if they're in a crowded place and have to struggle to hear the person at the other end. Which means they shout all the louder themselves thus offering yet more amusement to innocent bystanders.

No matter what happens with Mannesmann and Vodafone, at least that pleasure will still exist.

Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed- income specialist at NCB Stockbrokers