This Week In The Markets

There was a time when investors in this part of the world needed to have little more than a peripheral knowledge of the stock…

There was a time when investors in this part of the world needed to have little more than a peripheral knowledge of the stock markets in the Far East tiger economies. And as far as stock markets in South America were concerned, investors could afford to remain in a state of blissful ignorance.

No longer. Now, anybody needs to be aware of what exactly is the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, not to mention the Bovespa Index. Bovespa? This, for the uninformed (and that, until yesterday, included this reporter), is the index of the top 51 stocks on the Rio de Janeiro stock market and it was fears of a Brazilian banking collapse that knocked 100 points off the Dow in the last couple hours of trading on Thursday night.

Stock markets in the emerging economies of Asia and South America are likely to have an increasingly strong influence on the major international stock markets.

So much for the cause of the past week's turbulence, what about the effect? Was it all a storm in a financial teacup or has the bull market, which over the past two years has driven stock valuations up to unprecedented levels, come to an end?

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The consensus view seems to be that it will be some time before the markets resume a strong growth pattern and, for a period of months at least, will be extremely volatile, dropping or falling one or 2 per cent with the latest bit of news from the Far East and the steady flow of economic figures indicating the strength of the American economy.

In the US, the markets waited with bated breath this week for Federal Reserve chairman, Mr Alan Greenspan's testimony to Congress. It was the same Mr Greenspan who, with just the two words "irrational exuberance", sent Wall Street into a temporary tailspin earlier this year. Any similar comments in the middle of severe market weakness could have turned a correction into a crash.

As it emerged, Mr Greenspan couched his words with the utmost caution, although his lack of enthusiasm for the excesses of stock markets have hardly undiminished.

The volatility that will probably characterise stock markets in the weeks and months ahead presents opportunities and dangers. Regular swings in stock prices will provide an opportunity for the punter to take a position on individual shares. The only advice that can be given for any aspiring punter is - don't punt if you can't afford to take the loss if prices go the wrong way.

With all the turmoil this week, a flotation on the Irish market was the last thing expected. But with the process already in train, Athlone Extrusions announced plans for a £45£50 million flotation accompanied by a placing that will raise in the order of £20 million.

With a strong profits record and an institutional investor base following the 1991 management buyout, the flotation seems assured of success.

Already a success is the Marlborough flotation and the first dealings in the shares went well on both Dublin and London markets - even against the background of the market instability.