This Week In The Markets

The Dublin market suffered contrasting fortunes during the week, with the ISEQ losing as much as 50 points on Monday, but gaining…

The Dublin market suffered contrasting fortunes during the week, with the ISEQ losing as much as 50 points on Monday, but gaining almost 20 on Thursday.

Some of the factors behind the volatility are the rapidly changing picture in Asia and the unpredictable nature of the market during the summer. In Asia, for example, the appointment of Japan's new Minister for Finance, Mr Kiichi Miyazawa, has had a double-edged effect.

His comment that the Government would no longer prop up the Yen meant the currency weakened almost Y1 against the dollar. A further fall in the Yen would boost Japanese exports and could help revive the stricken economy.

But ironically this could effect other Asian currencies. Chinese officials have reportedly told the US administration that if the Yen falls further they will be forced to devalue the Yuan - a move that could prompt other countries to follow suit.

READ MORE

Another serious worry is that the re-structuring initiated by Mr Miyazawa will cause the collapse of some of Japan's biggest banks. As one dealer in Dublin put it during the week: "While things are looking slightly better, there is a lot of uncertainty about at the moment". This has weighed on almost all international markets and even when Wall Street has risen, it has often lost its gains shortly into the next trading day.

However, many market analysts say that with the strong corporate earnings base of Dublin-listed companies, international factors should not cause the market to slide in any long-term fashion. However, stocks with significant exposure to weak international markets like Independent Newspapers and Waterford Wedgewood might lose some value.

Traders in Dublin are hoping that next week's interim results from AIB can re-invigorate an inconsistent market. "We can expect the AIB share price to bounce right up until Wednesday when we get to see the figures and that may help other financials," said a dealer during the week.

Market forecasts suggest that AIB's figures will be strong across the board. They will benefit from a full six months contribution from both WBK and Dauphin. Pre-tax profits of £350 million or 25.5p earnings per share are being predicted by Davys, although it says these figures may err on the conservative side.

Meanwhile, Bank of Ireland has had a tough week, starting off at 1415p, but falling to 1395p by the close of business on Thursday. Traders say most of the fall is accounted for by simple profit-taking.

Elsewhere, the industrials have continued to suffer from a lack of demand. Even the normally reliable CRH has found itself floundering during the week, going from 1000p to 960p over a three day period.

NCB meanwhile told investors during the week that Powerscreen may now be leaving behind the damaging fallout from Matbro. It suggested that when asset sales are completed the stock could become a bargain for those looking to buyin at the start of an upward cycle. Possibly reflecting this, unlike some of the market leaders, Powerscreen's share price rose during the week from 114p to 119p.

This week also saw the Hibernian Group announce its half-year results and name a buyer for its loss-making British operations. While the results received a mixed reception, the selling of its UK business was widely welcomed, with the company pointing out that it would be likely to make a net gain of about £2.7 million on the sale.