Counties with large urban centres are experiencing a recovery in population figures in line with non-agricultural employment trends, according to a final draft of a National, Economic and Social Council report seen by The Irish Times. Declining agricultural employment is the principal economic factor in rural depopulation, but the growth in third level institutions has led to the existence of a graduate population in all areas, creating opportunities for dispersed industrial growth. "Over the past decade, the highest growth of manufacturing employment has been in those regions with a large urban centre. Thus, the highest growth rates were in the East (Dublin), the South-West (Cork), the West (Galway) and the Mid-West (Limerick)," the report states, while "there was substantial growth of services employment in most regions".

In tourism, although the industry is concentrated around Dublin, "revenue per capita from tourism is above average in a number of the poorer regions (the South-West and West)".

The report says that while public policy has a limited role in shaping settlement patterns, it should strike a balance "on the basis of a commitment to a regulatory environment that fosters economic activity ... without ignoring the need for some redistribution of resources". It predicts that the decline in agricultural employment will continue, "since the share of agricultural employment continues to represent a significantly higher share of total employment in Ireland compared to other EU countries".

Population trends show that larger towns and cities are gaining in numbers, while smaller towns and villages are losing out. "In addition to economic performance influencing settlement patterns, settlement patterns also influence the economic performance of an area," the report notes. It recommends the development of a network programme "to encourage smaller firms to co-operate with other firms in specific activities in order to overcome some of the disadvantages of small scale".

Describing settlement patterns, the report says that between 1951 and 1996, "the most notable increase was in towns of over 10,000 whose share of population increased from 3.6 per cent to 10.5 per cent". But the proportion of the population living in country areas (less than 50 houses) is at an all-time low, 34.5 per cent in 1996 compared to 53 per cent in 1951.

"Counties which have strong urban centres or are in a position to urbanise are also in a position to hold population," it says.