History would suggest that IAG boss Willie Walsh does not hang around. Look at the IAG takeover of Spanish low-cost airline Vueling, which was done and dusted a few months after the initial offer was made in November 2012. So Walsh – if he is to make the expected final offer for Aer Lingus after two previous rejections – will not hang around too long.
At the moment, on the other side of the table is Aer Lingus chairman Colm Barrington. Walsh needs to get Barrington on board to put the offer to shareholders. After the second rejected offer, the two sides and their advisers will have been sounding each other out over price.
Walsh’s side are believed to be arguing that expectations of a price of €2.70 or more are completely unrealistic. So the question is whether a deal could be done in the €2.50 to €2.60 range? Would IAG go there from their previous rejected offer of €2.40 and would this get Barrington over the line? As if this isn’t enough, there are a range of other characters who Walsh also has to deal with if we wants to go on to win control, ranging from Michael O’Leary, the biggest shareholder in Aer Lingus and the Government, the second biggest.
But first Walsh must tangle with Barrington and his advisers Goldman Sachs. We hear there have been some tense exchanges in recent days. The board’s final decision will have to be driven not only by its own musings, but also by what shareholders are saying. Ryanair’s new head of marketing, Kenny Jacob, was reported as saying this week that he expected a higher bid – and that IAG would “probably” need to pay between €2.50 and €2.70 a share. Does this mean O’Leary is open to an offer in that range?
Institutional shareholders, who hold about 25 per cent, will also have been communicating with the board and, conscious the shares would fall back if a third bid does not emerge, at least some are likely to be pushing for an offer. For the moment the Government can afford to sit on the fence, but if an offer is put to the shareholders, it will have to call it.