A Paris court will today decide the fate of Mr Jean-Claude Trichet as future head of the European Central Bank when it pronounces judgment on his involvement in the alleged massaging of the accounts of Crédit Lyonnais prior to the spectacular collapse of the large French bank in the early 1990s.

If Mr Trichet, governor of the Bank of France, is cleared, he is expected to be confirmed to succeed Mr Wim Duisenberg as head of the ECB. Mr Trichet has been lined up as successor since 1998, when President Jacques Chirac secured agreement that Mr Duisenberg would step down midway through his eight-year term.

But if the verdict goes against Mr Trichet, his chances of obtaining the ECB job are slim. EU leaders at their summit in Thessaloniki at the end of this week would have to discuss alternative candidates.

The Dutch head of the ECB has already postponed his retirement twice to accommodate the vagaries of the Crédit Lyonnais affair since Mr Trichet was put under investigation three years ago.

The latest occasion was after the trial ended in February. Then the Paris court gave itself an exceptionally long four months to mull over the verdict, setting June 18th for the announcement.

As Mr Duisenberg was at that point expected to stand down on July 9th, the short time separating the court verdict from this retirement date forced the Dutch central banker to postpone his departure, embarrassing Mr Chirac in light of his insistence on a French successor.

Mr Trichet's lawyers are expected to appeal against any guilty verdict - a process that could take at least eight months, according to French legal experts. Analysts say the prospect of uncertainty for another year would in effect rule Mr Trichet out of the succession. - (Financial Times Service)