Unemployment worsened last month, undermining predictions that the economy was poised to shrug off the downturn and stage a modest pre-Christmas recovery, data published yesterday reveal.
The seasonally adjusted live register shows a 2,200 rise in numbers signing on in November, bringing the national jobless rate to 4.4 per cent, a one point increase on October.
However, the rate at which jobs are being shed slowed to a 7.8 per cent increase from January, compared to 11.2 per cent for the 10 months to the end of October, the Central Statistics Office said. The unadjusted live register climbed by 930, a rise of 0.6 per cent against 3.7 per cent for the same period in 2001.
While the live register is not considered an accurate barometer of employment as it includes part- time, seasonal and casual workers drawing unemployment assistance or benefit, its findings are in line with previous estimates. The latest Quarterly National Household Survey, regarded as the most precise measure of unemployment, shows 86,700 out of work from June to August, a 9.5 point surge on the preceding quarter.
Men accounted for the bulk - 1,400 - of those losing their jobs last month, the live register reveals. Dublin bucked the trend, with numbers signing on in the capital decreasing marginally. The heaviest level of redundancies were recorded in the south-west and south-east.
Commentators said the figures indicated the economy was continuing to soften with an anticipated pick-up failing to materialise amid further global cooling. Overseas trends persisted in exerting a disproportionate influence over the state of the economy, said Mr Austin Hughes, chief economist with IIB bank.
"Unemployment in the US is on the increase and there is no doubt that the situation in Ireland is highly dependent on the outlook there."
The downswing is likely to continue into next year with a recovery not arriving until 2004, Mr Hughes said. Contraction in the labour market may even have been more pronounced than the live register indicates as an upswing in public sector recruitment over the past number of months has probably delivered an artificial boost to the labour market, according to Mr Hughes.
Opposition politicians seized on the data, claiming they highlighted the Government's inability to manage the economy during a pronounced downturn.
Funding cuts for job creation agencies such as IDA Ireland and Enterprise Ireland unveiled in last month's Estimates would cause further job loses over coming weeks, said Labour's finance spokesman, Mr Brendan Howlin.
