What kind of economy will the next president of the US inherit? Time is money and more time can mean less money.

In the short term, stock markets do not coddle uncertainty and nothing is more uncertain at this moment than who will be occupying the White House for the next four years. The conventional wisdom during the campaign was that a victory by Governor George W Bush would please Wall Street. At this stage, however, a clear victory by either of the candidates would ease Wall Street's frayed nerves.

After six consecutive down days, a mid-week rally in the technology sector was sparked by bullish comments from Ms Abby Joseph Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman Sachs. But those comments - that the technology sector in particular offered real value - did little to assuage the growing uncertainty about what kind of economy the future president will find when he takes office on January 20th.

Most experts agree that the US economy is slowing. Growth in the third quarter was at its slowest pace in more than a year, as a drop in government spending and slower business investment limited the effects of a rise in consumer spending. Gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced in the US, increased at a 2.7 per cent annual rate in the third quarter after rising at a 5.6 per cent pace in the second quarter, the US Commerce Department said. Economic output, about a quarter of the world total, exceeded $10,000 billion (€11,628 billion) billion) for the first time - when measured in actual dollars at an annual rate.

Third-quarter growth, the slowest since a 2.5 per cent pace in the second quarter of last year, suggests higher borrowing costs engineered over the past year by Federal Reserve policy-makers are having an effect. Still, there are signs the economy could pick up speed as the year draws to a close.

"The economy is slowing down, but not as much as the report would lead people to believe," Mr Paul Kasriel, chief US economist at Northern Trust in Chicago told Bloomberg News. "Consumer spending has bounced back, and we're seeing strength in exports."

What all this means has much to do with the projected 10-year budget surplus of $4,200 billion Both candidates' campaigns were built on programmes and strategies for spending that surplus. Both promised more spending for defence, but Mr Bush promised support for a costly anti-missile Star Wars programme. Both candidates also promised tax relief programmes for middle-class voters. Again, Mr Bush's tax cut plan takes about $1.6 trillion from the Treasury.

Mr Bush promised targeted tax relief for married couples, education spending, charitable giving and long-term healthcare. But a slowing economy may significantly reduce that rosy budget surplus, thus crippling both candidates' promises and plans.

Thus we may now may be looking at the candidates can't-do list. Mr Gore is unlikely be able to pass the family leave legislation he promised to trade unions. His retirement savings plus plan, which would give middle-class workers a tax-free savings account and a government match, is unlikely to survive in Congress.

Some say, rightly, that the irrational exuberance that propelled the bull market, and especially the dot.com sector before its fall, should not now turn into irrational pessimism. Productivity is still strong, inflation is not out of hand, and the existence and growth of the new information, hi-tech economy is real. Job growth is slowing, but the labour market is still tight, with unemployment at 3.9 per cent.

Still, President Bill Clinton's administration enjoyed a charmed economic time, a combination of savvy economic policy and luck. The new president is facing uncertainty about the future, and will enter office without a mandate for almost anything, so divided is the electorate. Anything could provoke a shift - a financial crisis abroad, Middle East problems, a sharp rise in oil prices. The new president will face difficult policy choices, a divided Congress, and a gaggle of European allies who may lack confidence in his leadership abilities.

Whoever it is, the new president will need more than his share of good luck.