US investors weigh up conflicting advice on where to put their funds

No wonder some members of the American public are confused

No wonder some members of the American public are confused. Following the roller-coaster ride of the US stock market this week, there is conflicting advice as to what they should do with their money.

More than half of the population is not involved in the stock market and therefore not concerned. But the latest Federal Reserve figures show that 41 per cent of the US population, or 85 million Americans, have some money invested in the stock market in stocks, bonds or mutual funds.

Some of these are involved to the extent that their retirement plans are tied into stocks or funds and if they leave their money in for the long haul it will pay off.

But for the individual investor who has disposable income and plays the market, the advice from Wall Street this week has been divergent and contradictory. Ms Abby Joseph Cohen, a bullish equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, recommended to investors on Tuesday that they should raise their exposure to equities to 72 per cent from her previous recommendation of 65 per cent. She also said cash holdings should be reduced to zero from a previous level of 5 per cent. The remainder of a portfolio should consist of 25 per cent in fixed income securities and 3 per cent in commodities. Her pronouncement was featured prominently in the press and on television here.

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One sceptical Wall St trader said it was a public relations exercise by Goldman Sachs. "Ms Cohen is being pushed into the public eye in advance of Goldman Sachs going public," he said.

Mr Tom Galvin, a leading analyst at Donaldson, Luftkin and Jenrette, said he raised the equity stocks in his portfolio from 65 per cent to 75 per cent three weeks ago. "I thought the market had bottomed," he told The Irish Times. "But the economy is relatively resilient."

He believes the coming weeks will be crucial with US investors watching economic progress in Japan and Russia and bank reform legislation occurring in the US. "My move has not won any acclaim," he said. "But I think it was the right move for the next six to nine months."

J.P. Morgan Securities' chief investment strategist, Mr Douglas Cliggott, advised clients to boost stocks, cut cash and keep bond holdings steady.

J.P. Morgan raised its equity stakes from 55 per cent to 60 per cent.

Voices coming from another direction, however, included Merrill Lynch's analysts who have been bullish on bonds. Mr Chuck Clough, a leading Merrill Lynch strategist, has been a bear for 18 months. While he is on holidays, Ms Sheryl Rowan, a senior strategist at Merrill who works closely with Mr Clough, said "we feel vindicated" regarding the steep decline in stock prices. Merrill Lynch adjusted its asset allocation to 50 per cent stocks (from 55 per cent), 50 per cent bonds (from 35 per cent) and cash to 0 per cent (from 10 per cent).

"In our view bonds continue to represent a buying opportunity to investors," said Merrill's morning notes summary on Tuesday. "We think the bond vigilantes of the 1980s will return, will formally invert the yield curve and will force the Fed to eventually ease."

So in a week that saw the second largest point loss in the stock market's history, down 512 points on Monday, and the second highest point gain ever, up 288.36 points on Tuesday, it seemed buyers were confident enough to step in to stop the fall. The individual investors let the big institutions worry about Russia, Latin America and Asia, while they picked up some bargains that had resulted from Monday's plunge.