PHARMACEUTICALS CONTINUED to prop up the Republic’s trade performance at the end of last year, but the latest figures still showed a 14.2 per cent drop in the value of exports between November 2009 and the same month in 2008.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said yesterday that the State exported goods worth €6.5 billion in November, down from €7.6 billion a year earlier.
The drop came as imports declined by 18 per cent to €3.7 billion, leading to a lower trade surplus of €2.8 billion, according to the data. In October, imports fell by 28 per cent on an annual basis.
When the figures are adjusted to strip out seasonal factors, exports fell by 1 per cent to €6.2 billion between October and November, while imports increased by 6 per cent to €3.6 billion. Adjusted figures for October point to a 13 per cent monthly fall in exports from September.
Ronnie O’Toole, chief economist with National Irish Bank, said he expected total goods exports for 2009 to register a 3 per cent drop on 2008 levels. He noted that while chemicals helped to offset export declines for most of last year, they were showing signs of weakening as 2009 closed. Preliminary CSO figures for November signalled a drop in chemicals exports to most destinations.
Mr O’Toole added, however, that the Republic’s merchandise exports had avoided the “dramatic falls” seen in many other countries.
On the imports side, notable drops last year came in computer equipment, with much of this attributable to a decline in computer manufacturing activity here. A stagnant car market was behind a 76 per cent annual reduction in the import of vehicles in the January to November period. Mr O’Toole said imports of “consumable goods” were now back at 2004 levels.
Some optimism for 2010 came from Alan McQuaid, chief economist of Bloxham Stockbrokers, who said sterling movements could come to the aid of “indigenous” exporters. He believed sterling would rise to 80p against the euro by the end of the year, helping firms that sell into the UK.
“We continue to look to exports to be the key driver of the Irish economic recovery and, with global demand picking up and sterling appreciating, the omens look good.”
