Wallflower Eircom waits for suitor's call

These days, telecommunications giants paraphrase Robert Kennedy when considering an acquisition: "Some companies see a chance…

These days, telecommunications giants paraphrase Robert Kennedy when considering an acquisition: "Some companies see a chance to expand and ask, Why? We dream of things that never were and ask, Why not?"

This is a fortuitous situation for the unfortunate former State monopoly. It means that there will be several companies willing to consider making an offer for the 35 per cent of Eircom which, it emerged this week, is being jettisoned by KPN and Telia.

Some might favour taking 29.9 per cent or less, which would allow a newcomer to take a minority stake without crossing the 30 per cent threshold under stock exchange rules and having to make an offer for the whole company.

Others may be happy to bid just a slight premium over the share price for the 35 per cent, minimising the risk that shareholders will accept an offer for the rest of the company.

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But it is likely that there are several companies already considering taking Eircell out, offering €10 million or more for the whole company.

Even applying the Robert Kennedy principle, some of these companies will ultimately find reasons why not to buy Eircom. Analysts this week have considered carefully what benefits such an acquisition would bring to, for example, France Telecom or Deutsche Telekom, and come up short.

Eircell's recent foray into the British market - the firm has a staff of 80 there, sourcing fibreoptic cable for possible leasing, and seeking acquisition targets - would hold little attraction for firms that already have a foothold in that market.

And the Republic's telecommunications market on its own, limited as it is by a population smaller than that of most European capital cities, would act as a disincentive for some players.

But analysts are usually operating with only some of the jigsaw pieces. A company executive who is already aware of secret negotiations with other players will see a fuller picture, and perhaps added value in Eircom.

For example, if France Telecom were convinced that Vodafone will be successful in its hostile bid for Mannesmann, and it has indeed negotiated with Vodafone to buy Orange after the deal goes through, the French giant might take a second or third look at Eircom.

Almost half of Eircom's value, analysts say, lies in Eircell. France Telecom would see a chance to run Orange right across Britain and Ireland, and perhaps fold in its own mobile network, Itineris, as the start of a seamless European service.

Other companies would not need such scenarios to pique their interest. The most obvious potential suitor is British Telecom (BT) - the possibility of a BT buy-out of Eircom was mooted in the pages of Business This Week in the editions before the KPN pullout.

BT cannot be happy with the market share achieved by Ocean, its joint venture with the ESB; industry insiders say the company's most popular product is the Oceanfree, a loss leader. By contrast, the synergies that might stem from a purchase of Eircom seem considerable.

Some 65 per cent of Eircom's international traffic already goes to Britain, much of it terminating on BT's network. Taking out Eircom would allow BT to make considerable savings on this traffic, and offer customers competitive island-to-island telephone and data rates.

In addition, the geographical fit for the two mobile companies, Eircell and Cellnet, would be snug. Now it would be Cellnet offering a seamless service throughout the two islands, and with BT's stake in France's SFR, the Netherlands' Telfort, and Italy's Blue mobile operators, possibly further afield.

A move by BT, especially one which saw the British firm take a controlling stake in Eircom, might also satisfy some immediate corporate needs.

As other major European players such as Vodafone, Mannesmann and France Telecom have jockeyed for position in recent weeks, BT has remained quiet. A purchase might convince investors the company was still an aggressive player. Also, BT's strategy for some time has been to take minority stakes in overseas firms, but industry sentiment has begun to turn against this approach. An acquisition, even a small one such as Eircell, could be used to demonstrate flexibility.

Finally, despite the political hackles that could be raised by a British company taking over a former State firm, BT and Eircom would probably be a reasonable cultural fit. Executives at both companies speak the same language, and would be familiar to some extent with each others' business environment. The chief executive of Eircom, Mr Alfie Kane, is a former BT manager.

But if BT is interested, it will probably not be alone. Industry observers say the most aggressive of the former "Baby Bells", SBCAmeritech, will also want to check out the Irish firm.

Like the representatives of BT, a spokeswoman for SBC would not offer any comment on whether the company would be interested. But she added that Europe represented "a very, very important part of our strategy", where the company was actively seeking acquisitions. It already owns large chunks of telecommunications firms in Denmark, Belgium, France, Norway and Switzerland.

Also taciturn was the spokesman for Bell Atlantic-GTE, another US giant whose merger should be through by early 2000. But while he would not comment on the possibility of buying Eircom, he quickly denied that Bell Atlantic-GTE would be too busy with the merger to consider a small acquisition in Europe.

The merged company already has almost a quarter of Italy's Omnitel, as well as interests in Greece, the Czech and Slovak republics and Romania. Analysts say the company is set on a rapid global expansion, and is particularly interested in Europe.

As well as representing an immediate foothold in Europe and in a state where English is spoken and business is done along the same lines as the US, Eircom's move into Britain could also prove attractive for these and other US firms.

In contemplating all of the options that will determine its fate, Eircom shareholders, and staff members, might recall another quote, from John F. Kennedy.

The president noted: "When written in Chinese, the word `crisis' is composed of two characters - one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity."

Sean Mac Carthaigh can be contacted at smaccarthaigh@irish-times.ie