What have Brazil, Argentina, Germany and France got in common? All have won the World Cup - and their economies all took a bit of a nosedive afterwards. Forget the boom and bloom predicted by some commentators due to Ireland's qualification for the World Cup. The win could bring nothing but more economic doom and gloom.

With tongue firmly in cheek, IIB Bank chief economist Mr Austin Hughes has outlined his analysis of the tragic economic consequences that befell past winners. How did the Brazilians become so good at football? "It's very obviously because their economy is so bad, because their unemployment and debt are so high," said Mr Hughes.

"If you want to get ahead in Brazil, you do not set up an internet company, you go down to the beach and play with a homemade football," he said.

Not that things are any better for that other great South American country which has won the World Cup. Argentina's skills on the football pitch may be sublime, but those involved in managing its economy leave a lot to be desired.

If any economy needs a steadying hand - a "hand of God" or otherwise - it is Argentina's. "We know it threatens to default on its borrowings. Inter-bank interest rates have recently been about 100 per cent. Does this sound at all familiar? We should all remember that it was hardly coincidence that our own currency crisis was sandwiched between Ireland's glorious participation in Italia '90 and USA '94," said Mr Hughes.

And what about other previous winners? "In 1990, the World Cup was won by Germany - no, West Germany. What happened to them? East Germany happened and inflation and debt spiralled. For what? So they could add \ Sammer to the national team. Imagine what would happen to Ireland if unification followed World Cup success. We could add significantly to our playing strength . . . with the addition of George McCartney of Sunderland."

Indeed. So it would not just be the economy that would suffer. The picture is already starting to look less rosy.

The German experience has been such a shock to its economy that the Germans have already demonstrated their utter determination not to win the World Cup again, according to Mr Hughes. "The evidence of these concerns can be the only legal explanation for losing 5-1 at home to England," he said.

The French, too, are so concerned about the damage another World Cup win could do to their economy that Fabian Barthez is already practising to make sure they do not win the trophy again in 2002, said Mr Hughes. Obviously, the French are following the line that, in terms of economics, to win one World Cup is unfortunate - but to win two would be seen as just carelessness.

So, qualifying for the World Cup has its downsides. But try telling that to the Iranians or the Dutch.