More than one in four people who were placed on probation rather than convicted by the courts had reoffended within a year, according to a new study on recidivism by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
The analysis shows that 27 per cent of those given probation by the courts in 2019 had reoffended by 2020, up 2 per cent on the previous year.
Overall, the offenders given a probation order who were most likely to reoffend within a year were those who came to the attention of gardaí for offences “against Government, justice procedures” and related crimes. These offences include failing to comply with Garda directions and breach of bail conditions, with 35 per cent of that group reoffending within a year.
The next category of offender most likely to reoffend in the short term was those who had received a probation order for theft offences and public-order crimes, with a third coming to Garda attention again within a year.
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Sexual offenders were the least likely to commit another crime, and be caught by gardaí, with just 3 per cent under investigation again within a year. Furthermore, some 22 per cent of drivers who broke the law behind the wheel and were dealt with by way of probation had reoffended within 12 months.
Overall, males aged 17 and younger, and those aged 18 to 24, were most likely to reoffend within a year – 55 per cent and 34 per cent respectively. Taken as one group, the number of males aged 24 or younger who reoffended within a year increased by 7 per cent during the year under review.
However, reoffending rates were lower for girls and young women, the rate of 12-month recidivism among the cohort falling to 25 per cent in 2020 compared to 33 per cent a year earlier.
The data also shows that in every age group, the rate of reoffending declines significantly as people get older.
While 55 per cent of males aged 17 or younger given probation reoffended within a year, the rate dropped to to 23 per cent in the 25-44 age group, falling further to 7 per cent in the 65-and-older group.
There was also quite a significant difference between recidivism rates among groups of offenders, depending on the manner in which they were dealt with under the probation system – for example, by way of community service or post-release supervision.
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