Hours after a dissident republican was shot in his taxi outside a west Belfast depot on Sunday morning, a social media post appeared that sparked fears of retaliation.
Republican Network for Unity, a small political party with links to the dissident organisation Óglaigh na hÉireann (ONH), posted that the victim is one of its members – and blamed the attempted murder attack on a group of people with links to criminality.
In what a PSNI officer described as a “disturbing incident” – it took place at 10.30am in the Bell Steel Manor area of Poleglass as children were travelling to football training - the shooting is being linked to an internal feud among ONH members.
The group split last summer when a small renegade faction left.
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Concerns are now growing about an escalation in violence with ONH linked to eight unsolved murders in recent years – despite being on ceasefire since 2018.
Police would not be drawn on speculation for Sunday’s shooting but a detective urged people to “desist from retaliation” at a press conference on Monday.
What the PSNI did say was that the 49-year-old victim was “lucky to be alive” after being fired at by two masked men through his car window. He was taken to Royal Victoria Hospital where his condition is stable.
Like the latest attack, many of the previous ONH killings took place during daylight hours in heavily populated areas.
Targets included those linked to the drugs trade and former members suspected of passing information to the PSNI.
In 2018, the group gunned down Jim “JD” Donegan as he sat in his red Porsche Panamera waiting to pick up his teenage son outside his school on the Glen Road in Belfast.
In what was described as a gangland-style execution, the 43-year-old was shot eight times by the suspected gunman who walked to the scene and fled on foot on the busy stretch of road.
Mr Donegan’s close associate, Sean Fox, was shot dead while drinking at Donegal Celtic social club afternoon on a Sunday afternoon in west Belfast three years ago.
Two gunmen took just 21 seconds to single the 42-year-old out of a crowd of more than 100 people before fleeing on foot.
One source said that the shooting in Poleglass on Sunday was “botched” compared with previous ONH attacks.
Formed in 2009 after it splintered from the Real IRA, ONH was one of the most active dissident republican groups and included former Provisional IRA members experienced in bomb making.
Colm Murphy, who was found liable in a civil trial for the 1998 Omagh bomb atrocity, was among its members. He died two years ago.
Police officers were among the ONH targets.
In 2010, the group planted the under-car bomb that seriously injured PSNI officer Peadar Heffron. In the same year it was blamed for a car-bomb attack on the British army’s Palace Barracks in Hollywood, Co Down, which houses MI5’s headquarters in Northern Ireland.
Mainly based in Belfast, ONH had a smaller membership along the north Louth/south Armagh border and in Derry and Strabane.
Announcing its ceasefire in 2018, the dissident group claimed it was suspending “all armed actions against the British state”.
Last June the group’s leadership was taken over by more hardline members, with some members stood down over clashes about its future.
Those breakaway members are now reportedly attempting to join the New IRA.
On Monday, The Belfast Telegraph reported that the victim of Sunday’s shooting was threatened in a garage forecourt a fortnight ago.
ONH is estimated to have fewer than 100 members currently.
Despite being small in number, the group has access to new, sophisticated weapons that have no ballistics history (unlike weapons used during the Troubles).
Police confirmed on Monday it is now stepping up patrols in the area.
Det Chief Inspector Gina Quinn said it was a “really early stage” in its investigation.
“I’m aware of media speculation involving retaliation, and I really would urge anyone to desist.”
She said the PSNI was appealing for anyone with information to come forward. “But again, I would urge anyone to desist in any form of retaliation. More violence is not the answer.”
