FOR the past six months, the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, has been using a formulation of words. Every time he is challenged on how people could have confidence in a renewed IRA cease-fire, he says it is up to the republican movement to find the necessary words and actions, to convince both governments that the ceasefire is unequivocal.

"Unequivocal" and "no going back" are terms used to describe the way in which the ceasefire might happen. These suggest a different mechanism from the simple Army Council decision used by the IRA in 1994.

Within the republican movement, there is broad acceptance that if another ceasefire is called it will be for good, to "hold in all circumstances". In that regard, speculation has intensified in recent weeks on the imminence of an IRA General Army Convention which decides matters of political and military importance.

Only two such conventions have been held by the Provisionals in the last 26 years. The convention - unlike the Army Council - has the power to end the war for this generation and to mandate Sinn Fein to continue the struggle by political methods.

Such a development would be as "unequivocal" an end to IRA violence as could be hoped for by the two governments. And from Sinn Fein's point of view, it would have the added advantage of completely wrong-footing the unionist parties.

By declaring an end to the war, rather than an uncertain ceasefire, the whole political equation would be transformed. At a stroke, it would meet the most difficult of the Mitchell principles. And Mr David Trimble would find it extremely difficult to maintain his present attitude of no talks involving Sinn Fein. The multi-party talks process at Stormont might finally become all-party.

Suspicion and distrust between republicans and the British government continue to generate obstacles. But these pale into insignificance compared to the gulf that separates unionists from republicans. And Mr John Major is increasingly dependent on Mr Trimble and his Ulster Unionist MPs for the survival of his government at Westminster.

In spite of this unpromising political scenario, Mr John Hume has been shaking the Westminster tree, demanding that the British government provide Sinn Fein with clear indications of what would happen in the event of a cessation of violence. It is a process which has been in train for some time.

Weekend reports of Mr Hume acting as an intermediary between Sinn Fein and the British government to secure a new ceasefire were regarded as unhelpful by Government sources. Their view was that unnecessary pressure had been placed on Sinn Fein by security leaks, while Mr Major's statement in response to these overtures would now come under the most intense scrutiny.

Some sources, however, are increasingly optimistic that a cease-fire will be called. Others just don't know. "Whatever happens will be unexpected. The situation could get dramatically worse or dramatically better," one said.

In the meantime, the new RUC Chief Constable, Mr Ronnie Flanagan, predicted that more bombs would explode in Britain and in Northern Ireland. He had no evidence to suggest that an IRA ceasefire was imminent.

TAKING his lead from such an assessment, Mr Trimble band his supporters regard he present overtures by Sinn Fein as part of a vicious end game, designed to deflect blame when the IRA's campaign gets going in earnest.

What is clear to all the parties is that time is running out. The window of opportunity is closing. Less than six months remain until the date of the British general election. And the Conservative government's majority in the House of Commons, is down to one. Ulster Unionist clout has rarely been greater.

But Mr Major has shown grit and resolve on Northern Ireland issues. Last month this determination led both governments to agree to guidelines on arms decommissioning which were rejected by unionists. But they haven't given up and are still committed to an inclusive, all party talks process.

Sinn Fein has been seeking undertakings and reassurances for months. At one stage, Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness went so far as to demand the establishment of a new talks process. But they were banging on a locked door.

Yesterday Mr Bruton repeated his Government's commitment to the Stormont model. It contained elements which had never been present before, he said a sufficient consensus rule, an independent chairman and a ground rule document. A "whole-hearted acceptance" of the Mitchell principles, and the ending of violence should allow Sinn Fein into all-party talks, the Taoiseach said.

Before that can happen, however, Mr Major must make a public statement addressing the concerns of Sinn Fein. It will be fraught with difficulty. And it must be done without driving Mr Trimble from the negotiating table.

Sinn Fein wants assurances that it can enter talks after an IRA cessation of violence; that decommission will not be used to immediately eject it from the talks; and that problem-solving mechanisms and confidence-building measures will be put in place.

It's not much different from what was on offer in advance of the June 10th talks, before the IRA blew away Sinn Fein's political strategy with a few mindless bombs. But unionist reluctance to talk with Sinn Fein has grown since then. And inter-party unionist rivalry in advance of the looming British elections will make progress even more difficult.

The re-election of Bill Clinton as US President would help. But the first step must come from Mr Major. He is expected to issue that all-important statement within the next week.