Writing in The Irish Times on August 25th, Mick O'Reilly, general secretary of the Amalgamated Transport and General Workers' Union, suggested that the next general election will take place within nine months. This is about the only part of his article with which I agree.
His advocacy of a stand-alone policy for the Labour Party is taking a line that was a political cul de sac in the 1960s and there is every reason to suggest it has remained so. The Berlin Wall type "go it alone" stance of Labour was a disservice to the Irish electorate.
An examination of the 1969 election results and a comparison with the 1973 figures shows clearly that a stand-alone policy by Labour, in effect, handed victory clearly to Fianna Fail in 1969. I suggest therefore, that a possibly unintended consequence of Mick O'Reilly's position is the continuation of a Fianna Fail-dominated government.
He may think this could be in his own party's narrow interest, but he would hardly argue that it is in the country's interest. Against a background of sleaze and scandals of enormous dimensions, coupled with a yawning gap between rich and poor, change must be desirable.
Mick O'Reilly should be wary of trying to take a narrow party line in such circumstances. A Fianna Fail-dominated government will be one choice at the next election. In my opinion the people are entitled to have the choice of a clear alternative.
I believe that choice should be a new rainbow coalition between Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party. This coalition would have the energy and creativity to tackle poverty and inequality; would manage the economy for benefit of the many, not the few; and would have the political determination to carry out a major programme of institutional reform.
The challenge must be to be open and realistic about our problems, and not remain blinded by the statistics of prosperity and the reality of a diminishing quality of life for many citizens.
The next election, when it comes, will be about harnessing the wealth of one of Europe's most successful economies and using that wealth for the benefit of all our citizens.
In my opinion, the three parties offering an alternative to a Fianna Fail-led administration should be willing to look at the option of a pre-election pact and of presenting themselves to the electorate as an alternative government.
An analysis of election results of the last 40 years clearly shows that an agreed electoral pact between parties results in a high transfer ratio between those parties. This bonus in seats can be the difference between being in government or opposition.
Now, Mick O'Reilly may fear that his party would lose Fianna Fail second preferences if it opted for a vote transfer pact with a rainbow coalition. But there is not a lot of credibility in presenting oneself as a tooth-and-nail opposition to Fianna Fail while quietly hoping for its second preferences.
A rainbow coalition offering voters a clear choice is also likely to reduce the number of single-issue candidates elected. If such an eventuality occurred, forming an effective government would be very difficult, with local and personal interests dominating, to the detriment of the common good.
The Labour Party has recent experience of being in government with both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Of course, it is for the Labour Party to reflect on that experience and draw its own conclusions and make its own decisions.
It must be said, however, that the 1995/97 government of Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left, despite its inauspicious beginning, was among the best governments of the last 30 years. The performance of John Bruton as Taoiseach and of Dick Spring and Ruairi Quinn as ministers with him won widespread acclaim, both at home and abroad.
That government was characterised by mutual respect, a sense of collegiality and consideration for the political positions of each of the parties involved. It was a model for any coalition government.
In my opinion a new rainbow coalition is in the national interest and in the interest of the political parties to such a coalition. Presenting this option to the people allows the voter to make clear choice.
Giving voters the right to choose the kind of government they desire will itself help restore confidence in a battered political system.
Political parties keeping their options open until after the election only increases voter apathy and cynicism. If the public deserves openness, transparency and accountability from governments after they are elected, it is also entitled to openness about parties' true intentions before voting. The 1992 experience must not be repeated, where the voters of this country voted in unprecedented numbers for the Labour Party, giving it a record number of seats. The election result, however, was a Fianna Fail-dominated government, contrary to the express wishes of the people.
The presentation of a pre-election package of policies has much in its favour, not least the fact the electorate know what it is voting for in advance. It also minimises the possibility of the type of horse-trading we have seen for 10 years following elections. Such horsetrading and a behind-the-scenes dilution of party political commitments fuel cynicism.
The members and leadership of Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party need to reflect carefully in the months ahead how best to serve the common good and how to devise an appropriate political strategy which will realise their political aims and ambitions.
I believe the country needs a new rainbow coalition. A pre-election pact by the parties to such a coalition significantly increases the possibility of such an outcome. For that reason alone the time may well be right for exploratory talks between the parties.
Paul Bradford is a Fine Gael TD for Cork East
