When a Cabinet subcommittee sits down next week to begin consideration of the 740-page Oireachtas All-Party Committee report on abortion, it will have three options to consider.
The five-member subcommittee will have the unenviable task of recommending to the Government which way to proceed on abortion. But with varying views within the committee, it is a decision that will not be reached easily
The options in the report reflect the positions of the three main political parties. The first option, favoured by Fine Gael, proposes taking no action to change the Constitution or to introduce legislation, concentrating instead on a £50-million 10-year plan to reduce the number of crisis pregnancies.
The second option, favoured by the Labour Party, proposes introducing legislation on the basis of the X case, allowing for abortion where there is a real and substantial risk to the woman's life from a threat of suicide.
And the third option, favoured by Fianna Fail, involves holding a referendum on a Bill to reverse the Supreme Court ruling in the X case. The 1992 decision ruled that a threat of suicide could amount to a substantial risk to the life of a pregnant woman, making an abortion permissible.
The Constitution Committee, made up of 12 members drawn from all the main political parties, failed to reach a consensus on the way forward, managing only to reduce the seven options outlined in the Government's Green Paper on Abortion to three.
It is now up to the Cabinet subcommittee to finally whittle the options down to one, a job that will not be easy given that the views of its members range from the liberal to the conservative.
Chairing the subcommittee is the Minister for Health, Mr Martin. The rising star of Fianna Fail was handed the troublesome health portfolio earlier this year when his predecessor, Brian Cowen, filled the vacancy left by the departure of Mr David Andrews from Foreign Affairs. While the Minister has many issues commanding his attention, none will be more controversial than abortion in the coming months.
The Minister has made no public comment on abortion since his appointment. In answer to several Dail questions on the matter, he has simply kicked for touch and asked people to await the publication of the All-Party Committee report. But he is regarded as being from the conservative wing of Fianna Fail and likely to support a referendum to reverse the X case while maintaining established medical practice.
His subcommittee colleague, the Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, is also in favour of another referendum.
During the 1997 general election campaign, he annoyed his party leader by doing a solo run on the abortion issue, publicly calling for another referendum for an outright ban on abortion.
The third Fianna Fail Minister on the subcommittee, Ms O'Rourke, has consistently taken a liberal view and is known to personally abhor the prospect of another divisive referendum.
It is understood that in spite of her reservations she will support the leadership line that standard medical practice should be safeguarded in legislation, and that abortion should be banned in Ireland.
THE fourth member of the committee, the Progressive Democrat Minister of State at the Department of Foreign Affairs, Ms Liz O'Donnell, is likely to repeat her leader's wish that there be no divisive and bitter referendum. The party itself is divided on the matter and has not agreed a definite line.
The fifth subcommittee member, the Attorney General and former PD TD, Mr Michael McDowell, is also known as somebody who is unenthusiastic about a referendum. As chairman of the PDs in 1992, he sided with the majority of his party colleagues in opposing the referendum put to the people then.
In his role as Attorney General Mr McDowell will be confined to a legal view and will have to leave the politics to the other members.
While no definite date has been fixed for the first meeting of the Cabinet subcommittee, it is hoped deliberations will start next week. A Government source said a quick decision is not likely. The committee will go through the abortion report in detail and is unlikely to make a recommendation until next spring.
If, as expected, the committee eventually agrees on the third approach, the one favoured by the Taoiseach and the Independents, the task of drafting legislation and a referendum wording will begin.
It would be next summer at the earliest before a referendum date could be set.
The Government will not go for a referendum in the run-up to a general election. An abortion referendum campaign would be rancorous and sour the electorate unnecessarily before an election.
