Bertie Ahern might have forgotten things and failed to keep the Tanaiste fully informed about potentially explosive information, but they weren't hanging offences. Venial sins of that nature eroded trust and confidence between coalition partners, but it would take a mortaller to blow the Government apart.

The political sin had to be of sufficient gravity to make an impact on the public mind and retain its potency during the three weeks of a general election campaign, otherwise, the party which precipitated an election would be on a hiding to nothing with the electorate. That was why there had to be a smoking gun. That was why allegations alone were not enough.

Mr Ahern focused on this issue during his Dail defence. In facing down John Bruton and Ruairi Quinn, who lacked hard evidence of their own, the Taoiseach declared it was not good enough "to make charges that relied on hearsay and unsubstantiated allegations in the media which may have no basis in established fact". Tom Gilmartin, the British-based prop- erty developer, would need to come and give direct testimony to the tribunal.

Fianna Fail had been on high alert from Sunday, when the Taoiseach was dramatically drawn into the controversy. A fire brigade response brought P.J. Mara back to his old stomping ground at Leinster House. Former ministers were contacted. Lights burned into the small hours. When the Dail returned on Wednesday, Mr Ahern was ready. With a stony-faced Tanaiste by his side, he read a carefully constructed defence, then dealt efficiently with questions.

Earlier, Seamus Brennan had warned the opposition whips that an election was a real possibility. To confirm the seriousness of the situation, Fianna Fail let it be known that its parliamentary party meeting had been postponed until after the debate, just to deal with election fall-out, if that was required.

The Progressive Democrats were also keeping their powder dry. No statement of support or approval would be issued until the information and explanations offered by the Taoiseach were fully assessed.

Under such pressure, Mr Ahern sought desperately to buy time and space. He appealed for Dail solidarity in the face of Mr Gilmartin's threatening language "against a democratically elected Taoiseach". Any one of them could be subjected to unproven and damaging allegations, with a political outcome in view, he intoned, and they should be wary of coming to premature judgments. Entreating TDs not to try to supplant the tribunal or pre-empt its hearings, he declared a rush to judgment would be wrong.

The opposition parties had vaguely planned for a general election in 2000, but they were now revising their dates and looking towards the end of this year. Events, however, are outside the control of politicians and party leaders and elections are unpredictable things. That was why, after the Dail set-piece on Wednesday, the Tanaiste set out her party's stall with care and deliberation.

In the process, she ignored Mr Ahern's scripted Dail reply and looked at the nature of the underlying allegations. Meetings with Mr Gilmartin were not the issue. What concerned her were allegations that people had tried to corrupt the planning process, trying to use their power and influence improperly to influence decisions and the payment of money . . . or bribery or corruption.

Two tribunals were sitting and nobody knew what would emerge. The events of the past week had damaged relations between the parties and, with an eye to Mr Gilmartin's assertion, "even if Bertie Ahern survives this week, he won't survive what I have coming down the line for him", she was taking out insurance. Ms Harney warned that loyalty and support between former Fianna Fail Cabinet colleagues should not come before truth and honesty. She would walk from government if the truth was not told and it was not honest.

Having said that, she moved to steady shaky nerves by accepting what Mr Ahern had told the Dail. She hoped the Coalition would last, but unhappiness over the Taoiseach's failure to keep her fully informed on the Padraig Flynn affair, when they discussed it in mid-October, left a sour taste.

The Tanaiste did not know what the Taoiseach knew or when he knew it, but she was prepared to make space for him. "It would seem," she told RTE, "that the Taoiseach didn't know until the autumn that Mr Flynn got that money. That seems to be the case. He didn't know until relatively recently," she said.

Mr Ahern, however, in his Dail speech, had left open the possibility that Mr Gilmartin told him in 1989. ail speech. And, At his instigation, the general secretary of Fianna Fail wrote to Mr Flynn on October 6th (before the meeting with Ms Harney) about "a sum of £50,000 allegedly given to you and intended for the Fianna Fail party". By that stage, too, Sean Sherwin, the national organiser, had already told the Flood tribunal about a conversation with Mr Gilmartin in 1989 in which he said £50,000 had been paid to Mr Flynn for the party.

Such uncertainties were put aside, however, as the Tanaiste prepared to leave today for a 10-day industrial promotions trip to Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Her acceptance of the Taoiseach's Dail statement led him to dismiss the notion that the Government was mortally wounded, and he asked that the tribunals be given time to do their work.

When the Labour Party was toying with the idea of entering government with Fianna Fail in 1992, Mary Harney met Dick Spring in the corridors of Leinster House and urged him not to do it. The Progressive Democrats' experience with Fianna Fail in the outgoing government, she told him, had been nightmarish. The rot may be setting in again.

The Progressive Democrats have demanded truth and honesty in government as the price for their continued participation. Trust has already become a casualty.