BETWEEN now and mid August, there is a potential for trouble at any or all of a scenes of urban and rural flashpoints where Orange marches are due.

At the rural centres, there is many cases a double hazard, as local Orangemen frequently march through the area not only in the morning, before travelling to participate in larger rallies in Derry, Belfast or elsewhere, but also parade again on their return in the evening.

The lower Ormeau Road in Belfast is a major focus, with at least 11 more parades set to take place. The major occasions, are the traditional "Twelfth"

July 12th - and also August 12th, which is the big day for the Apprentice Boys.

Derry will be particularly at risk on August 12th when up to 16,000 Apprentice Boys will seek to march around the walls again, as they were permitted to do during their annual parade, last year. There is already strong opposition by all sections of nationalism in Derry to a repetition of last year's incidents, when the RUC forcibly cleared protesting Bogside residents who were blocking the stretch of the city walls overlooking their community.

The annual parade of Portadown Lodge to Drumcree parish church is due to take place in July, a few days before the "Twelfth" and is certain to be a focus of intense controversy if, as is likely, it attempts to use the Garvaghy Road route.

The villages of Rasharkin and Dunloy, both in Co Antrim, saw trouble last year and will be anticipating repeat performances.

Opposition is already being organised among the nationalist communities of Bellaghy, Co Derry, and Pomeroy, Co. Tyrone, to several Orange parades due to take place locally.

Lurgan, in Co Armagh, has seen clashes as rival marches were organised in recent years and will continue to be a potential flashpoint on several dates.

Tension is building over a planned Royal Black Preceptory parade through Roslea, Co Fermanagh.

There has been trouble in the past at Orange parades in Downpatrick and Newcastle, Co Down, but matters had settled down and recent years saw few incidents.

The "Twelfth" itself, when there are rallies and parades at scores of venues throughout the North, carries the potential for disturbances at many points, depending on prior events elsewhere and the effectiveness of RUC planning and policing.