Bibi and The Boss face up to tough choices on peace

The clues are there. The problem is they often appear contradictory. Take two recent examples

The clues are there. The problem is they often appear contradictory. Take two recent examples. Despite his decision earlier this year to forge ahead with the construction of a Jewish housing project at Har Homa in east Jerusalem, in late July the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, blocked plans for another Jewish building project, this time in the East Jerusalem neighbourhood of Ras al-Amud.

But no sooner had the pragmatic Mr Netanyahu come to the fore than the more familiar hard-line Netanyahu was back at the helm, meeting influential American-Jewish leaders in an attempt to neuter proposals that the US special envoy, Dennis Ross, was said to be bringing to the region.

A little over a year into his first term, Netanyahu-watchers are still trying to fathom the political persona of the man who, at 48, is by far Israel's youngest prime minister.

It took Mr Netanyahu three months after winning the elections in May last year before he agreed to even meet the Palestinian leader, Mr Yasser Arafat and, weeks later, he opened an archaeological tunnel in Jerusalem's Old City, sparking bloody gun battles between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian policemen.

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However, he then became the first right-wing leader to cede territory on the West Bank when he went ahead and signed a deal with Mr Arafat that saw Israeli soldiers withdraw from most of the city of Hebron in January this year. That was followed by the release of Palestinian women prisoners in Israeli jails.

But several weeks later, Mr Netanyahu thumbed his nose at the world when he gave the goahead for the bulldozers to begin work at Har Homa. And now, following last month's double suicide bombing in a crowded Jerusalem market which killed 15 people, he is again playing hardball, having placed a travel ban on the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

So which is the real Mr Netanyahu? The pragmatic leader, trying to steer a zig-zag route between US pressure and the hard-core elements of his right-wing coalition; or the hard-line nationalist who detests Mr Arafat, has never believed in the peace process and is out to destroy it.

Mr Netanyahu got his right-wing nationalistic views early, growing up under the influence of his historian father, Benzion, a strong supporter of the revisionist brand of uncompromising Zionism which argued that the Arabs would only accept a Jewish presence in the Middle East if they were met with an iron hand.

However, it was an event in 1976 which may well have proved to be the defining moment in Mr Netanyahu's life. In May that year, Jonathan "Yonni" Netanyahu was the only Israeli soldier killed in the legendary raid on Entebbe, when Israeli commandos flew 2,500 miles to free over 100 hijacked hostages.

Yonni was Benjamin's elder brother, singled out by the parents for lofty things. When he was killed, the hopes were transferred to the next in line, Benjamin. In Bibi, as he was nicknamed, the parents could not have chosen a better candidate.

After serving in the country's most elite defence force unit, called sayeret matkal, Mr Netanyahu chose to study at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he majored in architecture and then completed a master's in business administration.

"I don't think he was the brightest student we ever had," recalls a professor, "but he worked like hell. He was the most organised, committed student I think we ever had. He did in four years what most do in eight."

It was his appointment to the high-profile post of Israeli ambassador to the UN which really propelled him into the spotlight and gave him the opportunity to display his rhetorical skills.

Having completed his UN posting, he returned to Israel, where he began a truly meteoric rise, going from being a first-time Knesset member in 1988 to Prime Minister in just eight years.

After the Likud Prime Minister, Mr Yitzhak Shamir, lost the 1992 election, Mr Netanyahu challenged for the party leadership.

With the battle in full swing, he appeared to have blown his political career when he provided Israel with "Bibigate", the country's first political sex scandal. On January 14th, 1993, Mr Netanyahu went live on Israel TV to tell the country that he had cheated on his wife. The story raised questions about his composure under pressure, but Likud voters overwhelmingly elected him.

His penchant for survival and an insatiable desire to win were to prove vital assets in his quest for the ultimate prize. When Prime Minister Shimon Peres announced early elections in February 1996, Mr Netanyahu faced a double-digit deficit in the polls.

But an eight-day spate of Hamas terror, claiming 60 lives, resurrected his election prospects. Overnight, Mr Peres's huge lead evaporated as faith in the peace process nose-dived.

But to win Mr Netanyahu had to make an ideological volte-face in mid-campaign. An inveterate critic of the Oslo accords with the Palestinians, he suddenly announced that, if elected, he would honour them and even move the process forward. It was an expedient move which he understood was vital if he was to hook the middle-of-the-road floating voters.

While Mr Netanyahu pulled off a razor-thin victory, he has struggled to turn electoral success into success in office. His first year has been crisis-ridden, the most serious being the Bar-On affair, an influence-peddling scandal in which he was alleged to have orchestrated the appointment of Ronni Bar-On, a little-known Jerusalem lawyer, to the post of attorney-general to help a political crony on trial for corruption.

In the end, Mr Netanyahu scraped through as the state prosecution ruled that, while there was "real suspicion" of wrongdoing at the highest political levels, there was insufficient evidence to convict him.

Like Mr Netanyahu, his third wife, Sara, has had her personal life scrutinised by a largely unforgiving media. Last year, in what became known in the media as Nannygate, a 21-year-old South African immigrant named Tania Shaw, who worked in the Netanyahu home as a nanny, accused Sara of firing her unfairly, mistreating her and cheating her out of money. She filed a $25,000 civil suit against the first family.

When asked about the numerous first-year glitches, some Netanyahu advocates point to President Bill Clinton's first two rocky years in government and argue that Mr Netanyahu, like Mr Clinton, will grow into the job. They also blame what they say are biased, left-wing media.

The recent bombings have placed the ball in Mr Arafat's court and given Mr Netanyahu breathing space. But with the US now displaying an increasing willingness to step back into the Middle East cauldron, Mr Netanyahu may soon find himself facing some fateful decisions, especially if the Americans take up his own suggestion to leapfrog the next stages of Oslo and go directly to final status talks which will deal with the future status of Jerusalem as well as the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

Then, maybe, he will have to make the choice, between a stubborn, unbending politician whose ultimate aim is to bury the peace process and a hard-nosed, but ultimately pragmatic leader who realises that the price of reversing Oslo for his own country would be devastating.

Peter Hirschberg is a senior writer at the Jerusalem Report