QUESTION: Who said: "I want the talks process to include Sinn Fein. The opportunity is still there to be taken if there is an unequivocal IRA ceasefire."?

ANSWER: Tony Blair on his visit to Northern Ireland two weeks after the Westminster elections. But the events of last week made the prospect of peace look very bleak indeed.

The callous gunning down of Constables Graham and Johnston, the heart-rending sight of their wives and children at the funerals, the wave of fear over a loyalist backlash: this was all our worst nightmares come back with a vengeance.

So, like the Samuel Beckett character must we say: "I can't go on, I'll go on."? Obviously the answer is yes, the struggle for an end to violence must continue because the alternative is too awful to contemplate.

The near-universal horror and revulsion generated by the killings of the two RUC officers showed the strength of the desire for peace north and south in the island.

The relatively muted reaction when Constable Greg Taylor died an even more horrible death when his head was stamped on until it reportedly became four times normal size, in loyalist Ballymoney, suggested the public was becoming inured to violence.

The equally savage stamping to death of the young Catholic, Robert Ham ill in Portadown, when the perpetrators reportedly danced on his head shouting "Die you bastard, die"; the INLA shooting of Constable Darren Bradshaw amid the pounding music of a gay bar and the killing of Belfast man John Slane in front of his large family likewise tailed to produce the reaction we saw last week.

It may be that because of the peace process and all those eloquent Sinn Fein spokesmen and women on television, the public had come to expect better from the Provisionals. With Sinn Fein election candidates running under the slogan, "A new opportunity for peace", how could their paramilitary brothers and sisters turn around and make five young children fatherless?

In the wake of the shootings in Lurgan, security sources were saying there was more to come and it might even extend to England. Mo Mowlam may have helped to avert, or at least stave off, a loyalist backlash by making her high-profile visit to the Progressive Unionist Party and the Ulster Democratic Party in an obvious plea for restraint.

ON the surface at least, the IRA attack in Lurgan seemed to run counter to the interests of Sinn Fein.

Nationalist sources in the peace process said substantial progress was being made in contacts between Sinn Fein and the British government. A document had been produced from the British side which, according to both nationalist and unionist sources, granted as much as 95 per cent of what Sinn Fein was looking for.

Now all is changed but, with due respect to W.B. Yeats, not utterly. Unionists have cause for quiet jubilation at the prospect of the British Prime Minister announcing on Wednesday that Sinn Fein is out of the equation for the time being. The peace train is leaving the station and one anti-republican noted that "like the original peace train, there are no Shinners on it".

Meanwhile, the joint Anglo-Irish proposals on decommissioning are expected to be unveiled on June 30th. If the Ulster Unionists manage to shrug off the criticisms of the smaller unionist parties, there could be substantive negotiations between them and the SDLP. This would increase pressure on the republican movement to call another ceasefire lest it miss out on the political action.

Anyone who has observed the talks since their inception last June would have to be sceptical at the prospect of movement, but it just might happen. "Never say never," as David Trimble said in New York when asked if he could see himself around the table with Sinn Fein.

Even with the media and public opinion in full cry after the IRA attack in Lurgan, John Hume and Bertie Ahern refused to disown Sinn Fein completely. More significantly, Tony Blair and Mo Mowlam left the door slightly ajar. But there is anger: "Tony Blair doesn't like to be made a fool of" said one senior politician. Likewise Bill Clinton is said to feel he was "taken for a sucker".

If there was anger, there was also bemusement. Loyalist political contacts recalled that just before Canary Wharf, there had been strong rumours the two governments were about to call all-party talks with Sinn Fein participation. The weekend before last, Sinn Fein was reportedly promised entry into talks six weeks after an IRA ceasefire. Irish Government officials are said to have recommended the deal.

Then Lurgan happened: what was wrong with these people? Were they afraid to get their feet wet or did they just want head-to-head talks with London about British withdrawal as everyone else cooled their heels outside the door?

The impending British government statement is expected to be full of tough rhetoric directed against Sinn Fein. Mr Blair and President Clinton appear to be in agreement on their approach. Last week's statement by Congressman Peter King urging an immediate IRA ceasefire was indicative of the mood among the republican movement's closest friends in the US.

However, republican sources have cast doubt on suggestions that the British government was making major concessions. The notion of a "de-contamination period" after a ceasefire sat very badly with republicans, especially since the loyalist parties still remained in talks despite the activities of their paramilitary associates. Republican sources also cast doubt on the notion that the "peace train" could leave the station without them. One year into the talks, it still had not got up a head of steam.

There had been similar waves of revulsion in the past but republicans had still made political progress. Meanwhile they would read the forthcoming paper on decommissioning with the greatest interest.

LURKING somewhere behind the current scenario is the British government's plan B". This would reportedly involve beefing-up local government in the North and putting the relationship between the two governments on a different plane by setting up an Anglo-Irish council.

Talk of increased powers for local government is a cause of concern to Irish Government sources: these things are not supposed to happen outside the talks process. Remember "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"?

The day after the Lurgan shootings, the North's Environment Minister, Lord Dubs, was floating the possibility of legislation to give local councils "a power of general competence" to do what they considered appropriate in the interests of their district and its people. Watch out for further leaks in this "dripfeed" process.

A week from Sunday, the Orange Order will be seeking to march down the Garvaghy Road in Portadown. How the British government handles that problem could set the tone for the next five years or more in Northern Ireland.

Mr Blair talks about trains leaving stations - this is his chance to show who's driving.