Blair observes niceties with no sign of shift in Trimble position

Eddie McGrady never spoke a truer word

Eddie McGrady never spoke a truer word. "We're back to front," he told me, as he summoned the energy for another tour of the makeshift studios in Castle Grounds.

The South Down MP was reflecting on the absurdity that - some 17 hours after the expiry of Mr Blair's "absolute" deadline - the parties had actually been asked to present position papers on the key issues in the negotiation.

Feigning incredulity (for Mr McGrady is not that easily surprised) he wondered aloud that such a development had not been called for somewhat sooner after the Prime Minister's unilateral imposition of the deadline on May 15th.

In fact, some key players saw the request that parties reduce their positions to writing as the beginning of a potential reversal for Sinn Fein.

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As the midnight deadline had come and gone, the British and Irish governments were found proclaiming the possibility of a history-making deal on the issues of decommissioning and the appointment of the power-sharing executive. And there was no doubting who was in the frame to catch the blame if it was not realised.

Even before the midnight hour both governments were briefing heavily against David Trimble and the Ulster Unionists. One British source genteely understated Mr Blair's fury, saying he viewed with "an element of disbelief" the UUP's refusal to grab the Sinn Fein offer.

An Irish Government source was more forthright on the Prime Minister's behalf. "We feel we've delivered Sinn Fein. The problem is still with the unionists. The Brits are utterly frustrated." And Mr Adams and his Sinn Fein colleagues arrived back late morning "on the pig's back" (as they say here) with Mr Blair's proclamation of "seismic shifts" ringing in their ears.

For anyone paying attention, the operative assumption was that Mr Blair was merely observing the niceties, since there had been no suggestion of a shift of any proportion in Mr Trimble's position.

The UUP leader's appearance at the microphones would have instantly reinforced that conviction. Some kindly souls suggested he was thinking only of the media. But speaking directly after the Taoiseach and Prime Minister, his reference to "some willing fools" seemed a catchall embracing everyone who believed there had been any offer at all from Sinn Fein.

"There has been no commitment to my knowledge from the republican movement on decommissioning in terms which the unionist community would understand," declared Mr Trimble.

And for all the anti-Trimble spin, close scrutiny and questioning provided confirmation that he had indeed been asked to buy into some thing representing considerably less than a "guarantee" of a process, with a built-in timetable, ensuring total IRA disarmament by May 2000.

Moreover, he was at least technically entitled to say he had "seen nothing" purporting to offer these assurances, since it was understood (except apparently by him) that the definitive Sinn Fein offer would only materialise once the party was satisfied a deal was to be concluded.

More accurate, perhaps, to say Mr Trimble was offered the belief - of Mr Blair, Mr Ahern and President Clinton - that the new Sinn Fein language would lead to disarmament by May 2000 in context of the overall implementation of the Belfast Agreement.

That belief, as reported previously in The Irish Times, was to be rooted in Sinn Fein "confidence" that it could deploy its influence successfully to secure decommissioning.

And it would be buttressed by assurances that at a number of defined points along the way the agreement would be suspended in the event of non-compliance or delivery by the IRA.

There was hope and expectation that, if the Ulster Unionists agreed to the executive going live, questions of modalities and timetables could be resolved in the ensuing months, permitting a first "delivery" by Christmas if not before.

But did it, as was claimed on Mr Blair's behalf, offer "certainty of achievement" and "certainty of sanction"? Was it, actual decommissioning, guaranteed? "What's a guarantee?" replied one senior Irish source. This correspondent didn't have a dictionary to hand. But literal-minded unionists had no difficulty with definition.

One of Mr Trimble's Assembly Members put it thus: "You can't call a pregnant woman a mother until she has delivered." He, like his leader, wouldn't really believe in the great miracle until he saw the proof before his eyes.

And suddenly - for all that they had the night before proclaimed delivery a sure thing - the two governments agreed that further movement was required. And so suddenly, it seemed, Mr Trimble had the opportunity to turn the heat back on Sinn Fein courtesy of his promised counterproposal.

Mr Blair was reported confident he could construct a bridge.