The greatest immediate threat to our prosperity may be US economic slowdown. But the much more radical, immediate and also long-term threat is posed by our internal Catholic collapse. Worker volatility, due to that collapse, is now reaching epidemic proportions.
Things are not helped by the fact that our media commentators do not focus on Catholic collapse as the root cause. It is as if they obey a party whip.
This ignoring of Catholic practice's contribution to economic activity is new. In his introduction to the 1958 economic development document which signalled so much, Dr T.K. Whitaker wrote:
"A concerted and comprehensive programme aimed at a steady progress in material welfare, even though supported by the churches and other leaders of opinion, could only be successful if the individual members of the community were realistic and patriotic enough to accept the standard of living produced by their efforts here, even if it should continue for some time to be lower than the standard available abroad."
It was usual at that time for economic commentators to focus on the key significance of Catholic practice. I was privileged to participate in related discussions with Whitaker, Sean Lemass, Garret FitzGerald and others around that time. Catholic practice was seen as being relevant to both production and consumption.
Now the emphasis is all on economics, and spiritual matters are being neglected.
The core element of the problem in the late 1950s was summarised by Whitaker: "It seems clear that, sooner or later, protection will have to go and the challenge of free trade be accepted. There is really no other choice for a country wishing to keep pace materially with the rest of Europe."
We Irish of the 1950s were determined to "keep pace materially" with the rest of the English-speaking world. If our economy was not organised to give us enough money, we would go elsewhere, as in droves we did around that time.
In our 1957-58 exchanges we saw clearly that de Valera's 1943 radio broadcast vision of Irish people was departing with him from Irish politics. He saw "a people who view material wealth as the basis for living as God wishes people to live"; that is, as Catholicism wishes people to live.
Already, 14 years later, money had been disconnected from Catholic practice. Greed was getting out of control. The recent political and economic history of Ireland has been interwoven with efforts to gain from, and yet restrain, greed. Catholic collapse has been with us in earnest for nearly 30 years. The regularity with which so many invest to gain Lotto winnings far in excess of their needs as Catholics reflects that.
Greed now dominates all classes and income levels, and even age levels. Up to the early 1990s, with labour supply in excess of demand, greed control was manageable enough. Towards the end of that decade control became much less manageable. It is now quite unmanageable, with sheltered public and private-sector workers determined to have as much spending power as unsheltered workers.
Deferment of marriage means a high proportion of people in their 20s, 30s and 40s are without dependants and therefore mobile.
The result is, in general, workers who are much more unreliable, sloppy and expensive than they used to be. The phenomenon is growing rapidly. It cannot but undermine our prosperity with equal rapidity. How does one get workers to be "realistic and patriotic enough" (to quote Whitaker's 1958 words) to curb their greed?
It is highly unlikely that political exhortations will motivate us to curb greed. Nothing short of reversal of Catholic collapse can hope to succeed.