The annual confrontation which brought Northern Ireland to a standstill in 1996 and has posed a deadly threat to civil order and public safety ever since now looms over us again, with Drumcree Sunday only four weeks away, on July 4th.

On that morning, barring unforeseen circumstances, members of the Orange Order in full regalia will assemble at Carleton Street Orange Hall in the town, proceed by the outward route along Corcrain Road and the Dungannon Road to Drumcree parish church on the outskirts of Portadown and then, after attending a Church of Ireland service in honour of those who died at the Battle of the Somme, seek to return by the Garvaghy Road to the town centre.

While its ruling will not be announced until five working days beforehand, there is a general expectation that the Government-appointed Parades Commission will prohibit the Orangemen from walking the Garvaghy Road because of the potential for civil strife arising from the objections to the march by nationalists in the area.

As in other years, the Orangemen will protest at the blocking of their march on the small bridge close to the church. They will be joined by supporters - estimates range from a few thousand up to 150,000.

The level of fear and tension throughout Northern Ireland will rise very considerably and there may well be further sectarian murders such as the killing of Mrs Elizabeth O'Neill in Portadown on Saturday.

Against this background, the director of the Scottish branch of the industrial mediation service, ACAS, Mr Frank Blair, presided over proximity talks at the Interpoint Centre in Belfast last Friday and Saturday.

The talks were attended by delegations representing the Portadown Orangemen and the Garvaghy Road Residents' Coalition, but they did not sit in the same room and were apparently so well separated in the large multi-storey building that they barely caught sight of one another.

The chairman presented a draft discussion document to the two sides which envisaged the march following its traditional return route along the Garvaghy Road this year. Over the subsequent 12-month period, a centre to commemorate the cultural heritage of the Orange Order would be established in a non-contentious area. In July 2000 the Orangemen, after the traditional church service, would march to the cultural heritage centre for a formal inauguration ceremony. They would return to the town centre by the outward route and not, as in past years, the Garvaghy Road.

This route would be followed in all future years. The draft proposal also included a proposed cash injection of at least £15 million to remedy social deprivation in Portadown.

The Orangemen were, according to reports, incensed at the draft proposal. Their response was to submit the return route of the 1998 march along the Garvaghy Road, which they still want to see completed. In addition, they submitted the traditional outward and Garvaghy Road return routes as their proposal for all future years.

On the proposals on funding, the Portadown District said it welcomed any initiative which addressed community issues in general, but this was subject to the Drumcree church parade being "satisfactorily resolved".

The response from the Garvaghy Road Residents' Coalition (GRRC) was more complex. It was prepared to "consider" the draft proposal, although the GRRC was at all times required to be responsive to the views of its community expressed in public meetings and consultations. The GRRC believed that, in order to achieve agreement, the proximity format was not adequate and the two sides would have to meet face to face. It suggested steps the Orange Order could take to create a climate of trust within the nationalist community as opposed to the current atmosphere which it characterised as one of murder, fear and intimidation.

The GRRC asked that the proposed Orange heritage centre be located in an area which would not have the potential to become contentious, i.e., not in a place where nationalists were likely to be the majority community in the future. A public statement issued yesterday by the Portadown Orangemen was highly critical of Mr Frank Blair, whom they accused of "a complete bias against the Orange position". The Orangemen accused the GRRC of being sectarian and supporting a policy of "ethnic cleansing" in Portadown. "Despite feeling marginalised by the last few days' process the Orange delegation will take time to reflect on the way forward," the statement added.

The climate has worsened as a result of the weekend murder of Mrs O'Neill and opinion has hardened on the nationalist side against "Orange feet" this year. A rally was planned for next Sunday to give nationalists from other areas a chance to come and show their solidarity with residents of the Garvaghy Road but this is now likely to be cancelled because of fears for the safety of people travelling to the area.

The criticism of Frank Blair by the Orangemen does not augur well for future meetings. The nationalists did not want to go ahead with today's session of the talks because they would coincide with the funeral of Mrs O'Neill. It is not clear whether the Orangemen will consider it worth their while to attend future talks under Mr Blair's chairmanship. They accused him in their statement of making an "unannounced departure" from the Interpoint building on Saturday, but this version of events is disputed by other sources close to the talks.

It is understood a senior Orangeman contacted No 10 Downing Street at the weekend to make the point that the Order had already given substantial concessions but, according to Orange sources, the Prime Minister's office indicated further concessions would be required in order to secure this year's march along the Garvaghy Road. At the same time there is concern among nationalists that, if they were to agree to the march this year, they would have no guarantee that no future marches would take place on the Garvaghy Road. There are suggestions that the Prime Minister and Mr David Trimble will have to intervene to increase the pressure for agreement.

At present, compromise seems a very long way off.