More than 18 years after independence, Zimbabweans feel there is little to celebrate. The economy is in the worst state ever since the country became a modern state. A chronic collapse in business confidence prompted by massive corruption shows the years are finally catching up with President Robert Mugabe and his cronies in ZANU/PF.
The slide started midway through 1997. First war veterans started demanding their money from the War Victims Fund. Intended for poor people who suffered losses during the war of independence, the fund had already been looted by mostly top government officials and their relatives, many claiming fictitious war injuries and trauma.
With the veterans becoming increasingly angrier, President Mugabe conceded their demands. He had to. His own brother-in-law, Reward Marufu, had been the largest beneficiary of the fund.
The government was forced into paying out over $3 billion in unbudgeted funds to pacify the war veterans.
Mr Mugabe next announced that he was acquiring land compulsorily. Preliminary notices of land acquisition were served on 1,471 commercial farmers. Land-hungry rural people were growing restless. They had fought the war for one thing, land. A previous land acquisition had seen top government and army officials and their relatives benefiting.
Last November the government announced that it would be seizing 841 commercial farms in the near future. The move goes against undertakings given at a recent land donors' conference. The news shocked the farming community, and it looks like a lengthy legal battle will ensue between farmers and the government.
Towards the end of 1997 and in early January 1998, baton-wielding police beat and shot at people in Harare protesting at food shortages and price increases.
During last year the dollar kept falling, with November's inflation rate running at over 35 per cent. Increases of more than 30 per cent on basic food commodities in September and October followed by a 67 per cent increase in fuel prices in November inevitably saw violence erupting yet again in Harare and Bulawayo when bus and taxi touts doubled their fares.
The Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) has emerged as the clearest threat to the government in over 18 years. Mass strikes on November 11th and 18th were very well supported. The union wants a 20 per cent increase in wages to offset the prices increases.
It's a short-term solution. Morgan Tsvangirai, the secretary-general of ZCTU, argues that if the government can afford a war in the Congo, it can also afford to subsidise fuel.
Quoted in the Financial Gazette, Mr Tsvangirai said: "There is significant loss of public funds through corruption, mismanagement and pursuance of private interests."
Glaring examples of abuse of public office continue. Parts of the capital went without water for three weeks because the council had not paid its bill to increase pumping capacity. Construction costs of the mayoral mansion ballooned from an original $5 million to over $50 million. Still the mayor retains office amid calls for his resignation.
Mr Mugabe's deployment of over 10,000 troops to the Democratic Republic of Congo in support of President Laurent Kabila is proving extremely unpopular. Criticised by human rights groups for this foray when his own country is floundering, the President maintains a silence.
Mr Mugabe's increasingly erratic acts are perceived by many as those of a desperate man. What sort of leader entertains Michael Jackson on the eve of a major workers' strike? What leader drags his country into a war when his own is in a pitiable state? And who flies into Libya in obvious violation of UN sanctions, as the President did last November. The Congo war is estimated by independent sources to be costing the country $1 million daily. Since 16 Zimbabwean soldiers were captured by the rebels, and with news of Zimbabwean fatalities reaching the public, church leaders and human rights groups are calling for a pull-out. .
With less than 14 months to go until the next elections, political commentators point out that it is not so much the country falling apart but ZANU/PF. Increasingly, divisions are seen between Mr Mugabe, his coterie and the rest.
Mr Mugabe, still immensely powerful though not popular, is garnering all the support he can. With recent changes in the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO), two military men now hold the top positions; political observers say this is a calculated strategy to position key contenders for the future leadership of the country.
The Public Order and Security Bill was recently rushed through parliament. It gives the police and army extra powers during demonstrations. The government has already threatened the unions and is looking for ways to curb their influence. But Mr Mugabe can no longer ignore the sheer support which the ZCTU has mustered, support that spans racial, class and ethnic boundaries.
Civic groups are calling for a new constitution. The constitution, negotiated in London during the Lancaster House talks and accepted reluctantly in 1979, is at the root of most of Zimbabwe's current problems.
Amended 14 times, most notably in 1987, when it created the executive presidency, it has given the 74-year-old President and his 18-year old government unlimited power.
The National Constitutional Assembly (NCA), comprising civic organisations, human rights groups and the churches, is pressing for a new constitution where all Zimbabweans will be consulted.
To many observers, it is the only way things will change. Only then will Zimbabwe be truly independent.
