Flooding, powerful wind storms and perhaps a new Ice Age are on the cards for Ireland as global warming continues to push up world temperatures. The climate predictions for northern Europe make particularly bleak reading, with our weather turning decidedly nasty.
There are two main scenarios emerging for this region and at first sight they seem contradictory. One suggests that the Atlantic will throw much more powerful storms at us and with a much greater frequency. The other holds that the rising temperatures will speed up the melting of Europe's glaciers and Greenland's massive ice cover. This in turn will switch off the warming Gulf Stream, plunging us into near Arctic conditions and reducing us to frozen tundra.
While the scientists might disagree over how climate change will unfold, they no longer bicker over the reality of global warming. There has been a relentless rise in world temperatures over the past 100 years, with many of the record-setting years coming during the 1990s.
The change is almost certainly linked to rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and these levels in turn nicely match the arrival of the Industrial Revolution. Industry and transport need energy and energy means burning fuel. When you burn fuel you get power and its by-product, carbon dioxide, and this is discharged into the atmosphere.
Temperature change occurs because the carbon dioxide is a "greenhouse gas" that acts like an insulating blanket. It traps radiant energy from the sun as heat close to the Earth's surface and gradually warms things up.
The popular view holds that this could be a good thing for Ireland, with citrus groves in Wexford, wineries in Meath and sun-drenched beaches for Donegal. The climate models are not so co-operative however, with warmer but much harsher weather likely for Ireland and northern Europe generally.
The exchange of energy between the oceans and the atmosphere produces weather patterns, and higher temperatures in the north Atlantic will change what we take to be normal weather. Storms will be more frequent and powerful and climate models predict more rainfall.
These storms will kick up higher wave surges along our coasts and, when combined with heavy rain, the result will be flooding and accelerated coastal erosion. Low-lying areas such as Dublin, Cork and the Shannon estuary could be in trouble.
Some models, however, predict something more dangerous for Ireland and much of coastal Europe north of France. Higher annual average temperatures are melting Europe's glaciers and reducing polar ice. This is flushing millions of tonnes of water into the north Atlantic and some scientists believe that this could stop the Gulf Stream, which keeps cities as far north as Murmansk free of ice during the winter.
The Gulf Stream carries warm equatorial water, giving Ireland a temperate climate despite its northerly location. Matching latitudes in Canada are tundra, a near wasteland punished by devastatingly cold winters.
The Gulf Stream is sustained by a "pump", caused when dense cold water sinks down into the Greenland Sea to circulate under the Arctic Circle. The fresh water influx is reducing the water density, however. Scientists at Britain's Public Marine Laboratory believe this could disturb the ocean currents and slow or even halt the Gulf Stream, producing a climate catastrophe for Ireland and Northern Europe.
If this climate model is correct, we would have to become accustomed to very severe winters and short, cheerless summers. Life as we know it would be gone and we would have difficulty both feeding ourselves and keeping warm.
The great tragedy is that climate change is already under way and even concerted action by European governments to reduce carbon dioxide output is unlikely to halt changing weather patterns. There have been years of inaction over carbon dioxide emissions. If we now have years of inaction over preparations for the effects of global warming, then we are all in deep trouble.
